In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, May 17th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 24-22 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL Central. They have a 13-12 home record and are coming off a 0-6 loss at home against the Phillies. They will face the Cardinals and the Blue Jays next.
The Pirates have a .251 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .320 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team in RBI with 32, and Brandon Lowe adds a team‑high 12 home runs.
Paul Skenes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 6-2 record, 1.98 ERA and 0.64 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 23-23 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 11-11 away record and are coming off a 6-0 win on the road against the Pirates. They will face the Reds and the Guardians next.
The Phillies have a .235 batting average this season, .301 OBP and .391 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.41 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .331 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 36, also adding a team‑high 20 home runs.
Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 2-0 record, 2.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: May 17, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes Record this season: 6-2 ERA: 1.98
- Home Record: 3-1
- Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Pirates have won 10 of their last 11 home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have lost five of their last six day games following a road win.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 15 of their last 18 games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler Record this season: 2-0 ERA: 2.55
- Road Record: 2-0
- Last 5 against Pirates: 3-1
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last three day games.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in each of their last three day games.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Phillies’ last eight games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Pirates’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games as underdogs.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Paul Skenes’ last four home appearances as a starter.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Marcell Ozuna has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games as favorites against NL East opponents.
- Jared Triolo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Pirates as home favorites against NL East opponents.
- Paul Skenes ranks T2nd in the league for Wins (6) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in four of the Phillies’ last five games against NL opponents.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
- Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against NL Central opponents .
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (20) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pirates rank 3rd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.335).
- The Pirates rank T3rd in the league for home runs allowed this season (37).
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (443).
- The Phillies rank 30th in the league for hits allowed this season (431).
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction
Both teams are tied 3-3 in their last 6 meetings and are 3-3 in their last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh.
In this Phillies vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -140 home favorites. The Phillies have won both games in this series and the Pirates are looking to avoid the sweep with Paul Skenes on the mound, whose four of his last five starts have been shutouts. The Pirates also have a better offense and are even better against right-handed pitching, and as good as Wheeler has been this season, I just have to back Skenes and the Pirates at home in this one to avoid the sweep.