In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 17th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies are 26-18 this year after they won game one of this series by a score of 8-4 on Friday night. Philadelphia trailed 3-1 in the sixth inning, but they scored six runs in the seventh and eighth innings to take control for the win. The Phillies recorded nine hits in the game, and they were led by Castellanos and Harper, who both had two RBIs in the win. Philadelphia started Suarez, who allowed six hits and three earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Alvarado picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Cardinals, but did win two out of three against the Guardians before that. Philadelphia has won four of its last six games, and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 210 runs with a .258 batting average and a .337 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 15 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added seven home runs and 25 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 58.0 innings pitched this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 15-30 this season after they lost game one in this series on Friday. Pittsburgh took a 3-1 lead in the sixth inning, and they brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth, but stranded the runners for the loss. The Pirates recorded seven hits in the game, and they were led by Canario, who went 2-3 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. Pittsburgh started Heaney, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings, while Wentz allowed three hits and three earned runs in the eighth.
Prior to that series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Mets, but did win two out of three against the Braves before that. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last six games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 139 runs with a .219 batting average and a .301 on-base percentage this season. Bryan Reynolds has led Pittsburgh with five home runs and 20 RBIs, while Andrew McCutchen has added three home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 36.1 innings pitched this season.
Why the Phillies will beat the Pirates
- The Phillies have won each of their last 14 Saturday night home games against National League opponents.
- The Pirates have lost each of their last 10 Saturday games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 Saturday night home games against National League opponents.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Saturday road games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Six of the Pirates’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Phillies’ last five home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Pirates’ last 10 games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Phillies’ last eight games against NL Central opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Max Kepler has recorded a Double in three of his four previous home appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
- Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last five night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five home appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 appearances with the Phillies as favorites.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in eight of his last 10 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last seven home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Alec Bohm has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Andrew McCutchen has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances after playing the previous day.
- Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Saturday night appearances against teams that held a winning record.
- Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded two or more RBIs in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
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Phillies vs Pirates Prediction
Philadelphia was able to win a wild game one on Friday night to open this series, and they are now 15-8 at home this year. The Pirates are just 6-17 on the road this season, and they have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. Pittsburgh will try to get things going at the plate in this game, but they will face Wheeler, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The Phillies have scored 15 runs in their last two games, and they are going against Mlodzinski, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, but doesn’t typically go very deep into games. I have no faith in this Pittsburgh team right now, especially going against Wheeler, so take the Phillies -2.5 here at plus money.