Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction 5/12/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, May 12^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 17-23 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the AL East. They have a 7-12 home record and are coming off a 1-4 loss at home against the Rays. They will face the Braves and the Royals next.

The Red Sox have a .235 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .353 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Wilyer Abreu is the team’s best hitter with a .295 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 23, also adding a team‑high 8 home runs.

The projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox is yet to be decided.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 19-22 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 7-10 away record and are coming off a 6-0 win at home against the Rockies. They will face the Pirates and the Reds next.

The Phillies have a .237 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .353 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 27, also adding a team‑high 16 home runs.

Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 1-0 record, 3.12 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: May 12, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Red Sox’s last five games.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Red Sox following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites following a win.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 3.12
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 2-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last nine night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last 11 Tuesday games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Phillies’ last seven night games at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Triston Casas has hit at least one home run in five of his last nine appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last four games.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight road appearances against AL opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (16) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.353).
• The Red Sox rank 28th in the league for home runs this season (29).
• The Phillies rank T1st in the league for strikeouts this season (394).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.270).

Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and are 2-2 in their last 4 meetings in Boston.

In this Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -140 road favorites. The Phillies have turned things around and have been playing good baseball lately. As a result, they are 7-2 in their last 9 games and their offense has been clicking, having scored 6+ runs in five of their last six games. Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies and he has been looking good so far, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and is facing a struggling Red Sox offense that has scored just three runs in its last two games. Take the Phillies on the moneyline.