In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Tigers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, July 11th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Detroit Tigers Preview
The Detroit Tigers have a 44-50 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the AL Central. They have a 27-21 home record and are coming off a 10-2 home win against the Phillies. They will face the Angels and the Cubs next.
The Detroit Tigers have a .236 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .401 Slugging percentage. Detroit’s pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Riley Greene is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average. Dillon Dingler leads the team in RBI with 60, adding a team-high 19 home runs.
Casey Mize (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, and he has a 4-5 record, 2.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 52-43 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 27-22 away record and are coming off a 2-10 road loss against the Tigers. They will face the Mets and the Dodgers next.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a .236 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .401 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 58, adding a team-high 32 home runs.
Cristopher Sanchez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he has a 10-4 record, 2.62 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers Betting Trends: July 11, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Casey Mize Record this season: 4-5 ERA: 2.64
- Home Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1
Why the Detroit Tigers will win
- The Tigers have won each of their last six games.
- The Phillies have lost four of their last six games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last six games.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games after playing the previous day.
- The Tigers have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games.
- The Tigers have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games as underdogs.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez Record this season: 10-4 ERA: 2.62
- Road Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Tigers: 1-0
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last 11 night games following a road loss.
- The Tigers have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Tigers’ last five games at Comerica Park.
- The Tigers have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Tigers’ last five home games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last seven night games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last four games between the Phillies and Tigers.
Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Spencer Torkelson has hit a home run in each of the Tigers’ last three home games against NL opponents.
- Casey Mize has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Casey Mize has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
- Spencer Torkelson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Kevin McGonigle ranks 8th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Derek Hill has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against former teams.
- Cristopher Sanchez has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games.
- Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 12 games as road favorites against AL opponents.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (31).
- The Tigers rank T4th in the league for triples this season (19).
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (928).
- The Phillies rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
Phillies vs Tigers Prediction
The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Tigers, but have lost two of their last three visits in Detroit.
In this Phillies vs Tigers, the Phillies are coming as -135 road favorites. I like the Tigers as home dogs in this one, as they have been perhaps the hottest team in baseball lately, with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. Mize has been elite at home with a 2.12 ERA, while Sanchez has given up 14 runs in two of his last three starts combined and has been terrible on the road with a 5.32 ERA. The Tigers have a better bullpen and are the 4th-best hitting team against lefties in the last 10 days, while the Phillies are just 21st against righties. Take the Tigers at home for plus money.