In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Twins prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies are 95-66 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 3-1 and 0-5. In their game two loss, Philadelphia fell behind in the first inning and never got the offense going in the shutout loss. The Phillies recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Bohm, who went 2-4 in the loss. Philadelphia started Suarez, who allowed nine hits and three earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Lazar allowed two earned runs in relief.
Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Marlins, but lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks before that. Philadelphia has won three of their last four games and they are first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 776 runs with a .259 batting average and a .329 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 17 home runs and 71 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 13-5 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 196.1 innings pitched this season.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
The Minnesota Twins are 70-91 this year after they won game two by a score of 5-0 on Saturday. Minnesota scored once in the first, once in the fourth, once in the fifth, and twice in the seventh to secure the victory. The Twins recorded 11 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Fitzgerald, Outman, McCusker, Jeffers, and Buxton, who all had one RBI in the win. Minnesota started Abel, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Ohl and Funderburk closed out the game.
Prior to this series, the Twins won two out of three against the Rangers, but lost three out of four against the Guardians before that. Minnesota has won four of their last six games and they are fourth in the AL Central standings. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .257 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 677 runs with a .239 batting average and a .311 on base percentage this season. Byron Buxton has led Minnesota with 35 home runs and 83 RBIs, while Matt Wallner has added 22 home runs and 40 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Simeon Woods Richardson, who is 7-4 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 105.1 innings pitched this year.
Why the Phillies will beat the Twins
- The Phillies have won each of their last 14 games following a home loss.
- The Twins have lost each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a home loss.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Twins have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games against NL East opponents.
Why the Twins will beat the Phillies
- The Twins have won each of their last five Sunday games as underdogs.
- The Phillies have lost each of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Twins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Twins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against the Phillies.
- The Twins have won the first inning in three of their last four games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Twins’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Phillies’ last four day games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 15 of the Phillies’ last 16 games as favorites.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last six games.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his 13 previous appearances against the Twins.
- Trea Turner has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts
- Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in five of his last six road appearances after playing the previous day.
- Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
Phillies vs Twins Prediction
Philadelphia never showed up in their shutout loss on Saturday and I think we could see a similar effort in this game, as they can’t pass the Brewers in the NL. The Phillies are 54-26 at home this year, while the Twins are 32-48 on the road. Minnesota has actually played decent ball over the last week and they are starting Woods Richardson, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Phillies are going with Sanchez, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five. Take the under in this matchup.