In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, June 4th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Houston Astros Preview
The Houston Astros have a 28-35 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the AL West. They have a 14-17 home record and are coming off an 11-9 home win against the Pirates. They will face the Athletics and the Angels next.
The Astros have a .246 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .410 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 5.05 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .316 batting average, also adding a team-high 21 home runs. Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 45.
Kai-Wei Teng (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 3-3 record, 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 33-29 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 15-14 road record and are coming off a 9-11 road defeat against the Astros. They will face the Braves and the Dodgers next.
The Pirates have a .256 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .404 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .314 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team in RBI with 44, while Brandon Lowe adds a team-high 15 home runs.
Jared Jones (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 0-0 record, 10.38 ERA and 2.08 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: June 4, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Kai-Wei Teng Record this season: 3-3 ERA: 2.57
- Home Record: 2-1
- Last 5 against Pirates: –
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The home team has won four of the Pirates’ last five games.
- The Pirates have lost 13 of their last 16 road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Astros have covered the run line in five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven night games against American League opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Jared Jones Record this season: 0-0 ERA: 10.38
- Road Record: 0-0
- Last 5 against Astros: –
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Astros have lost each of their last five games as favorites.
- The Pirates have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Astros following a loss.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Thursday home games.
- The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
- The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Thursday games against the Astros.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Astros’ last nine night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Pirates’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Pirates and Astros.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Jared Jones’ last four road appearances as a starter.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of his last five appearances with the Astros as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 11 games as home favorites.
- Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.649) this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games as underdogs against AL opponents.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last seven games against AL West opponents.
- Oneil Cruz ranks T3rd in the league in Steals (20) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank 29th in the league for triples this season (4).
- The Astros rank 29th in the league for steals this season (22).
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (551).
- The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.340).
Pirates vs Astros Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and are 2-2 in their last 4 meetings in Houston.
In this Pirates vs Astros Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. Jared Jones was torched in his first start of the season and I don’t trust the Astros, who have the worst bullpen in baseball. Both teams have caught fire offensively lately and the two games in this series had 16 and 20 total runs. Both teams are 15-3 to the over in their last 18 games combined and with the total set at just 8.5 runs, I will go over that number.