Pirates vs Astros Prediction 6/5/25 MLB Picks Today

The Houston Astros and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Thursday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Framber Valdez for the start here, and Valdez is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA and 73 strikeouts this season. In his career, Valdez is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 17 strikeouts against the Pirates. The Pirates will trot out Mitch Keller for the start here, and Keller is 1-7 with a 3.73 ERA and 56 strikeouts this season. This will be Keller’s second career start against the Astros.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-0 loss at the hands of the Pirates in Wednesday’s matchup to drop to 33-28 on the year. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the Cleveland Guardians.

Astros Win 7 Of Their Last 10 Despite Wednesday’s L

Jose Altuve has 61 hits, including 9 home runs and 22 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 72 hits with 9 homers and 30 RBIs with 10 stolen bases, while Yordan Alvarez has 4 doubles and 18 RBIs with 21 strikeouts as well. Jake Meyers has 10 doubles as well, and Christian Walker has also accrued a team-high 69 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 5 stolen bases, while Jake Meyers has 8 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has a team-high 12 home runs with 34 RBIs of his own, and Cam Smith has contributed 3 homers and 17 RBIs.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last six night games following a win.
• The Astros have won nine of their last 10 games following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against the Astros following a home win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a road loss.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Isaac Paredes has hit at least one home run in three of the Astros’ last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded an RBI in three of the Astros’ last four games as favorites against the Pirates.
• Framber Valdez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Astros as favorites.
• Jake Meyers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last nine road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded a Double in three of the Astros’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Mauricio Dubon has scored a run in four of his five previous appearances with the Astros as favorites against the Pirates.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros’ last seven games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Jeremy Pena ranks T5th in the league in Hits (72) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to build on their win over the Astros from Wednesday’s matchup to improve to 23-39 on the year. After this series, the Pirates will take on the Philadelphia Phillies at home.

Pirates Trying To Find Consistency

Bryan Reynolds has 55 hits with 9 doubles, 7 home runs, and 34 RBIs while also leading the Pirates with 67 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 12 home runs and 26 RBIs with 22 stolen bases, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 52 hits with 9 stolen bases. Emmanuel Valdez also has a pair of triples this season. Tommy Pham has 4 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 46 hits with 9 doubles, and KeBryan Hayes has 48 hits with 18 RBIs and 6 stolen bases.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as favorites after playing the previous day.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games as underdogs.
• Mitch Keller has recorded six or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog against AL West opponents.
• Jared Triolo has recorded a Single in each of his last six appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Jared Triolo has recorded a Double in each of his three previous appearances against the Astros.
• Joey Bart has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Joey Bart has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Astros’ last eight night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

I’m on the Astros in this one. I get the case to be made for the Pirates here as a home dog just based on value, but the thing is that the Pirates’ offense can be so wildly inconsistent that it’s just hard to trust them. On top of that, I just don’t trust Mitch Keller or this Pirates offense to back him up, or to match zeroes with Framber Valdez here. I’ll roll with Houston in this one.