In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, April 30th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 16-15 this year after they lost the first three games in this series by scores of 2-4, 7-11, and 4-5. In game three, Pittsburgh cut the deficit to 3-1 in the fifth inning, but they allowed two more runs in the seventh and fell short in the comeback attempt. The Pirates recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Yorke, who went 1-2 with two RBIs. Chandler allowed three hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Sisk allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Brewers, but lost two out of three against the Rangers before that.
This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.65 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .220 opponent batting average, while they have scored 148 runs with a .245 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with nine home runs and 26 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added seven home runs and 19 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP over 29.0 innings pitched this year.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The St. Louis Cardinals are 17-13 this season after they won game three by a score of 5-4 on Wednesday night. St. Louis led 3-0 in the fifth inning and 5-1 in the seventh, but they barely hung on for the win in the later innings. The Cardinals recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Burleson, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Pallante allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while O’Brien picked up the save. Prior to this series, St. Louis lost all three against the Mariners and two out of three against the Marlins.
This season, St. Louis has a 4.75 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a .263 opponent batting average, while they have scored 145 runs with a .235 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Jordan Walker has led the Cardinals with eight home runs and 20 RBIs, while Alec Burleson has added four home runs and 22 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Hunter Dobbins, who is coming off of the IL for his first appearance of the season.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Cardinals have lost each of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Pirates have won each of their last three day games following a loss.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games at PNC Park following a win.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against the Cardinals at PNC Park following a loss.
- The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have won the first inning in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in 13 of their last 16 road day games.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- The Pirates have lost each of their last 11 home games against NL Central opponents.
- The underdogs have won each of the Pirates’ last five games at PNC Park.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games against NL Central opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in 14 of the Cardinals’ last 15 games at PNC Park.
- The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Thursday day games against opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cardinals’ last four day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Pirates’ last seven day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Hunter Dobbins’ last seven appearances as a starter.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Paul Skenes’ six previous appearances as a starter against the Cardinals.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
- Jared Triolo has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as home favorites.
- Oneil Cruz ranks T5th in the league in Steals (10) this season.
St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Nolan Gorman has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.
- Alec Burleson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals’ last six games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Ivan Herrera ranks 8th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.420) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (24).
- The Pirates rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (298).
- The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (209).
- The Cardinals rank 27th in the league for ERA this season (4.75).
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis comes into this matchup looking to complete the four game sweep and they have scored 20 runs in the first three games. The Cardinals are 10-5 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 8-8 at home. Pittsburgh has lost four games in a row and they have allowed an average of five runs per game during that span. The Pirates are starting Skenes, who has allowed three total earned runs in his last five starts, while Dobbins is making his first start of the season. We aren’t sure what we are going to get from Dobbins, but we know Skenes is elite. Take the Pirates -1.5 here.