The Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Tuesday in MLB action from PNC Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Pirates vs Cubs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Pirates vs Cubs pick.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Cubs took a four-game split versus the Arizona Diamondbacks in their first series of the year, then posted a sweep over the Oakland Athletics ahead of a series win versus the San Diego Padres. The Cubs then won a series against the Texas Rangers. Next was another series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in two of three, then a series loss versus the Padres. The Cubs posted wins in two of three during the rematch with the Diamondbacks, then beat the Dodgers in two games. Chicago split their first two games with the Phillies 4-0 (win) and 10-4 (loss).
In the Sunday rubber match, Chicago gave up two runs in the top of the 10th inning on the way to a tough loss 3-1. The Cubs got a lone RBI from Pete Crow-Armstrong, while Nico Hoerner had a hit and scored the run. Starting pitcher Jameson Taillon was great on 7.0 innings with five hits, no walks, one earned and two strikeouts.
It’ll be Shota Imanaga for the Cubs in the starter role Tuesday. This year Imanaga is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 27 strikeouts total.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Over on the Pirates’ side, they opened up their season with a string of series losses versus the Miami Marlins, the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. Pittsburgh would finally win a set versus the St. Louis Cardinals, then got swept by the Reds. After another series win over the Washington Nationals, the Pirates lost in a sweep versus the Guardians and took a series win over the Angels. Pittsburgh split their first pair versus the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, winning 3-0 on Friday before an 8-4 loss in game two.
On Sunday in the finale versus LA, the Pirates had a very brief 2-0 lead in the top of the first, then gave up four runs in the bottom of that frame. Pittsburgh surrendered another three runs in the fifth on the way to a 9-2 defeat. Andrew McCutchen went 4-for-4 with a solo homer, and Enmanuel Valdez had a solo shot of his own as well. Starter Bailey Falter managed 4.1 innings with five earned on eight hits and two walks.
As starting pitcher for Tuesday Pittsburgh will send out Andrew Heaney. So far this year over five starts Heaney is 2-1 with a 1.72 ERA in 31.1 innings. Over his career Heaney is 53-63 with a 4.37 ERA in 208 games (190 starts).
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Pirates have won each of their last five home games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Cubs have lost four of their last five road games after going to extra innings.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six home games following a road loss.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games at PNC Park.
- The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games.
- The Pirates have led after 5 innings in three of their last four night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last seven games at PNC Park following a loss.
- The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The road team has covered the run line in nine of the last 10 games between the Cubs and Pirates.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games at PNC Park.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the last eight games between the Cubs and Pirates at PNC Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Cubs’ last four road games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last nine road games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four games.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
I’ll probably lean toward Chicago. The Cubs may have a bit of trouble getting the bats going on Heaney though, so you could call it either way. Heaney had a spotty outing versus the Reds on April 12 with four earned in 6.0 innings during a loss. That said, Heaney is 2-0 in two starts since then with zero earned on six hits and two walks combined over the pair.
The Cubs do need a bit of a boost after Sunday’s finale versus Philly—on offense at least. Chicago was able to muster just three hits, but kept themselves in the game for 10 innings thanks to a nice pitching performance overall from Taillon and the bullpen. The Cubs had scored four or more runs in four straight games prior to that however, so it’d be nice to see them plate a handful in this opener.