In this article, we will formulate a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 26th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 74-84 this year and they have won two of their last three games. Pittsburgh lost the first game in this series, but they did win game two by a score of 2-1 on Wednesday. Prior to this series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Reds, lost three out of four against the Cardinals, and lost two out of three against the Royals. Pittsburgh is 4-8 in their last 12 games and they are last in the NL Central.
The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .250 opponent batting average. The Pirates’ offense has scored 646 runs with a .235 batting average and a .302 on-base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .274 with 22 home runs and 85 RBI’s for the Pirates this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers are 90-68 this season and they have also won two of their last three games. Milwaukee won game one in this series by a score of 7-2 on Tuesday night. Prior to this series, the Brewers lost three out of four against the Diamondbacks, won two out of three against the Phillies, and won two out of three against the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is 3-5 in their last eight games and they have clinched the NL Central.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Brewers’ offense has scored 758 runs with a .248 batting average and a .325 on-base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .252 with 32 home runs and 111 RBI’s for the Brewers this season.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 173.0 innings pitched this year. Keller has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Civale, who is 7-9 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 155.0 innings pitched this season. Civale has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts.
Why the Brewers will beat the Pirates
- The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
- The Brewers have won five of their last six games against the Pirates following a road loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The road team has covered the run line in seven of the Brewers’ last eight games.
Total Runs Facts
- Eleven of the Pirates’ last 12-day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Nine of the Brewers’ last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last five road games against NL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four-day games at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- Mitch Keller has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one Single in each of his seven previous appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL Central opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 Thursday-day appearances at PNC Park.
- Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
- Yasmani Grandal has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances in day games.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded a Double in each of his last three home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Bryan De La Cruz has scored a run in nine of his last 10 home appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances against the Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Willy Adames has recorded a Double in three of the Brewers’ last four games as favorites against the Pirates.
- Willy Adames has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Brewers’ last six road games against NL Central opponents.
- Aaron Civale has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against NL Central opponents.
- Sal Frelick has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with the Brewers as favorites against the Pirates.
- Sal Frelick has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six appearances with the Brewers as favorites against the Pirates.
- Christian Yelich has scored at least one run in each of his last six Thursday-day appearances with the Brewers as favorites.
- Christian Yelich has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four appearances with the Brewers as favorites against the Pirates.
- Willy Adames has hit a home run in three of the Brewers’ last four-day games against opponents that held a losing record.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers come into this game trying to improve their seeding for the postseason, but they are pretty much locked into the third spot in the NL. Milwaukee is 45-35 on the road this season, while Pittsburgh is 39-41 at home. The Pirates are starting Mitch Keller, who allowed eight earned runs in his last start and hasn’t been great over the last few weeks. The Brewers are going with Aaron Civale, who has been decent recently but does have an elevated ERA this year. I think Civale is in much better form right now, so I like the Brewers to get the win.