In this article we will formulate a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 19th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Pirates are Looking for Five Straight
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 48-48 this year and they have won four games in a row. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series win against the White Sox, where they won all three games by scores of 4-1, 6-2, and 9-4. Prior to that series, the Pirates won two out of three against the Brewers, split four games with the Mets, and lost two out of three against the Cardinals. Pittsburgh is 6-1 in their last seven games and they are third in the NL Central.
The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 402 runs with a .231 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .284 with 18 home runs and 61 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh has allowed two runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.
Phillies Trying to Forget About Sunday
The Philadelphia Phillies are 62-34 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series loss against Oakland, where they lost two out of three games and allowed 18 runs in the loss on Sunday. Prior to that series, the Phillies swept the Dodgers in three games, lost two out of three against the Braves, and won two out of three against the Cubs. Philadelphia is 8-5 in their last 13 games and they have a big lead in the NL East.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.41 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .228 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 477 runs with a .259 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Alec Bohm is batting .295 with 11 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia has allowed at least five runs in three straight games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Martin Perez, who is 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 73.1 innings pitched this year. Perez has allowed at least five earned runs in two of his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 119.2 innings pitched this season. Nola has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last six starts.
Why the Phillies will beat the Pirates
- The Pirates have lost each of their last six games at PNC Park following a win.
- The Phillies have won 11 of their last 12 games against National League opponents following a home loss.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites following a loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against National League opponents following a road win.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Friday road games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Pirates’ last eight night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Phillies’ last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine home games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four night games at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Rowdy Tellez has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances in night games.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five home appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Oneil Cruz has scored at least one run in five of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Pirates’ last nine night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Rowdy Tellez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances in night games.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded two hits in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Trea Turner has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites.
- Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances.
- Trea Turner has recorded two or more hits in each of his last six appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Phillies’ last six games against NL opponents.
- Aaron Nola has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents.
- Aaron Nola has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Phillies as road favorites.
- Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Aaron Nola ranks T2nd in the league for Wins (11) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (132).
- The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 27th in the league for batting average this season (.231).
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (877).
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.41).
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Philadelphia is coming off of a bad series loss against Oakland last weekend and they allowed 18 runs in game three, but they still have a nice lead in the AL East and they are 25-18 on the road. The Pirates are 22-24 at home this year, but they are hot over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is expected to go with Martin Perez, who has battled injury this year, but has not been very good. The Phillies are going with Nola, who has not been as good as he was prior to the June 13th outing against Boston. Philadelphia is obviously the better team in this matchup and even with Nola’s recent struggles, they should be able to put up plenty of runs against Perez. My Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for the Phillies to win by at least two runs.