In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, July 5th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Houston Astros Preview
The Houston Astros have a 44‑47 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 22‑24 home record and are coming off a 10‑8 home win against the Rays. They will face the Nationals and the Rangers next.
The Astros have a .242 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .410 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.78 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .324 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 67 and adding a team‑high 29 home runs.
Peter Lambert (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 6‑5 record, 3.51 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 52‑34 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 21‑22 road record and are coming off an 8‑10 road defeat against the Astros. They will face the Yankees and the Mariners next.
The Rays have a .260 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .400 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .325 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 58, while Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 26 home runs.
Griffin Jax (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 4‑5 record, 3.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 5, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Peter Lambert Record this season: 6-5 ERA: 3.51
- Home Record: 4-4
- Last 5 against Rays: 0-0
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The Astros have won each of their last five day games against American League opponents.
- The Rays have lost seven of their last eight road games following a road loss.
- The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 day games against American League opponents following a road loss.
- The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last three day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax Record this season: 4-5 ERA: 3.45
- Road Record: 2-4
- Last 5 against Astros: 0-0
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Rays have won nine of their last 10 games.
- The Astros have lost four of their last five home games against the Rays following a win.
- The Rays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five home games against the Rays following a win.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Nine of the Astros’ last 10 home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Rays’ last four day games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of the Rays’ last 10 day games against AL West opponents.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Astros’ last eight home games against AL East opponents.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Peter Lambert has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 home appearances against AL East opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Peter Lambert has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Griffin Jax has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances.
- Junior Caminero has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last nine day games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
- Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
- Griffin Jax has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank 30th in the league for steals this season (28).
- The Astros rank 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (395).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (613).
- The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (235).
Rays vs Astros Prediction
The Rays are 5-3 in their last 8 meetings against the Astros but both teams are tied 3-3 in their last 6 meetings in Houston.
Both pitchers in this matchup have been decent and have probably gone under the radar, but they both have a combined 6.98 ERA. Both offenses exploded yesterday and what should have been a pitchers duel but they both combined for just 4 runs in the first game of the series. The Rays are 6-2 to the under in their last 8 games and the Astros have been 21st against righties in the last 10 days. Take the under in this one.