The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays meet on Wednesday in MLB action from George M. Steinbrenner Field. This will be the finale in a three-game series. Here’s a Rays vs Pirates prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Rays vs Pirates pick.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Pittsburgh took on the Miami Marlins in their opening series this past weekend. The Pirates were only able to win one of those matchups, though, taking it 4-3 on Friday. Otherwise, it was losses 5-4 on Thursday, 5-4 on Saturday, and 3-2 in the Sunday game four. In that finale defeat, Pittsburgh got a solo homer from Andrew McCutchen and an RBI from Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
In the Monday series opener versus the Rays, the Pirates gave up four runs in the fourth inning and couldn’t get much going themselves on the other side during a 6-1 loss. Starter Carmen Mlodzinski left after 3.2 frames, four earned, seven hits, and two walks.
In game two on Tuesday, Pittsburgh gave up three runs in the bottom of the first inning on the way to a 7-0 shutout loss. The Pirates managed nine team hits in the defeat, with Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes each posting two. Starter Thomas Harrington logged 4.0 innings and six earned in a rough outing.
As a starter for Wednesday’s finale, the Pirates will send out Paul Skenes. This year, Skenes has one start under his belt, going 5.1 innings with two earned runs. Last season in his rookie campaign, Skenes went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
Over on the Rays’ side, they played the Colorado Rockies in three games last weekend. Tampa took a loss 2-1 on Saturday but won the other two games 3-2 and 6-4 to take the set. In Sunday’s win, the Rays’ Brandon Lowe bagged a two-run homer in his 1-for-4 day.
On Monday, the Rays out-hit the Pirates 10-4. Four of those hits belonged to Jake Magnum, who posted two RBI and a run in four at-bats during a perfect outing. Starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen lasted 5.0 innings with two hits, no walks, and four strikeouts.
In the Tuesday matchup, Tampa Bay managed 10 team hits in the win. Brandon Lowe posted three of them with two runs, three RBI, and a homer. Jake Mangum also had three hits, along with two runs and two RBIs. Shane Baz was great in his start, posting 6.0 innings, seven earned, no walks, and 10 strikeouts. Mason Englert and Mason Montgomery followed with a combined 3.0 clean frames, no walks, and five more Ks.
It’ll be Ryan Pepiot in the starter slot for the Rays on Wednesday. In his 2025 debut, Pepiot put up 6.0 frames and one earned run in a solid outing. Over his career, Pepiot is 13-9 with a 3.23 ERA in 44 games (37 starts) total.
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Rays have won each of their last nine home games against the Pirates.
- The Pirates have lost each of their last 12 Wednesday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 12 games as home underdogs.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Rays have lost each of their last six Wednesday day home games against National League opponents.
- The Pirates have won four of their last five day games against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line each of their last six day games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites against American League opponents.
- The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Rays’ last nine home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eleven of the Pirates’ last 12 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight games as home underdogs.
Rays vs Pirates Prediction
I’m going to take a stab at the Pirates. We should have a pretty fun pitching matchup here, though. Skenes didn’t factor into the decision in his Thursday debut (a 5-4 loss), notching 5.1 innings with two earned on three hits and two walks alongside seven Ks. The bullpen had some issues late in the game, which prevented Skenes from carding a W. As for Pepiot, he pitched well Friday with 6.0 innings and one earned run on six hits and one walk, striking out eight along the way.
The Pirates had some opportunities on offense on Tuesday but couldn’t cash in on anything. Not that it would have mattered since the team was trailing for the entire game. The good news is that the bullpen did pretty well behind Harrington (outside of Dennis Santana’s shaky inning). Pittsburgh has a lot to clean up Wednesday, but Skenes should set them up well.