The Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox meet Wednesday in MLB action from Fenway Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Red Sox vs Mariners prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Red Sox vs Mariners pick.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
As they opened up their 2025 campaign, the Mariners split a four-game set with the Oakland Athletics, then lost two of three games against the Detroit Tigers. Seattle was then swept by the San Francisco Giants ahead of a series win versus the Astros. The Mariners would bag a sweep of their own over the Texas Rangers next and then took out the Reds in two of three. Seattle lost 3-1 to the Blue Jays in the opener of their weekend series on Friday, but then came back with an 8-4 victory in game two. In the Sunday finale the Mariners scored six runs over the first two innings on the way to an 8-3 victory. Starting pitcher Luis Castillo finished on 5.0 innings, three earned, 10 hits, two walks and five strikeouts.
In Tuesday’s opener versus the Red Sox, the Mariners were out-hit 11-6 in an 8-3 loss. Jorge Polanco logged a solo homer in the defeat, and starting pitcher Bryce Miller went 4.2 innings with four earned on five hits and four walks.
As starter for Wednesday’s game two, Seattle is going with Emerson Hancock. So far this year Hancock is 0-1 with a 12.71 ERA in two starts over 5.2 innings. Hancock has a 4-5 record with a 5.29 ERA in 17 career starts at the MLB level.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Over on the Boston side, they took an opening series loss in four games versus the Texas Rangers to kick things off, then a set win over the rival Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox managed a sweep over the St. Louis Cardinals ahead of losses in three of four versus the Blue Jays. Boston lost their three-game “laundry series” versus the White Sox then won the next series versus the Rays. In their rematch with the White Sox over the weekend, Boston won the first two games 10-3 and 4-3 before a Sunday loss 8-4. Wilyer Abreu managed three RBI with a homer in that one, and starter Tanner Houck had 6.0 innings with two earned on three hits and two walks alongside seven Ks. On Monday in the finale, Boston bagged a 4-2 win to take the set. Rob Refsnyder hit a solo homer in the victory.
In Tuesday’s game, the Red Sox scored four of their eight runs in the seventh inning alone.
As starting pitcher for Wednesday’s matchup, the Sox are going with Sean Newcomb. Over his four starts this year Newcomb is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 17.1 innings total. Newcomb is 28-27 with a 4.48 ERA in 179 career games (64 starts).
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last 10 games as favorites against the Mariners.
- The Mariners have lost each of their last eight Wednesday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Mariners.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games.
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won five of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Red Sox have lost 16 of their last 24 games as home favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against AL West opponents.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games against AL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Twenty of the Red Sox’s last 22 games as favorites against the Mariners have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mariners’ last four games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last 10 games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Mariners and Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction
I’ll lean toward Boston, but I’m probably not touching this one. Newcomb hasn’t been too bad on the mound this year, all things considered. That said, he’s yet to get a decision to go his way in the recored column. Over his last three outings combined, Newcomb is 0-1 with three earned runs in 13.1 innings on 16 hits and seven walks total. He didn’t make it through five innings in any of those three however, capping out at 4.2 in a couple of them. As for Hancock, he did pretty well in his last start with 5.0 innings and two earned on five hits in a no-decision versus he Reds. In the start prior to that however, Hancock posted six earned on seven hits and a walk. He didn’t even get through the first inning there.
The Red Sox had an impressive offensive outing Tuesday and overall the pitching wasn’t terrible (outside of Justin Wilson’s rough evening). I like Boston to keep it up Wednesday.