In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, September 20th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 94-60 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 54-26 home record and are coming off a 2-1 home loss against the Red Sox. They will face the Yankees and the Phillies next.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a .259 batting average this season, .328 OBP and .404 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the team’s best hitter with a .309 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI with 97, adding a team-high 41 home runs.
Griffin Jax (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 7-10 record, 3.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Boston Red Sox Preview
The Boston Red Sox have a 84-71 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 46-34 away record and are coming off a 2-1 road win against the Rays. They will face the Guardians and the Cubs next.
The Boston Red Sox have a .246 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 81, adding a team-high 27 home runs.
Patrick Sandoval (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-6 record, 4.99 ERA and 1.79 WHIP.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 20, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax Record this season: 7-10 ERA: 3.80
- Home Record: 3-5
- Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-1
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Red Sox have lost 14 of their last 15 games at Tropicana Field following a loss.
- The home team has won eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games following a loss.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 13 games at Tropicana Field against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval Record this season: 1-6 ERA: 4.99
- Road Record: 0-4
- Last 5 against Rays: 0-2
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Rays have lost each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
- The underdogs have won nine of the Red Sox’s last 11 games at Tropicana Field.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in 10 of the Red Sox’s last 11 games at Tropicana Field.
- The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games.
- The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games against the Rays.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Rays’ last four games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the last nine day games between the Red Sox and Rays.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Patrick Sandoval’s last four appearances as a starter.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Jonathan Aranda has hit at least one home run in each of the Rays’ last two day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Griffin Jax has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents.
- Junior Caminero has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last 10 games against the Red Sox.
- Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (45) this season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Patrick Sandoval has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Red Sox as road underdogs against the Rays.
- Jahmai Jones has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Rays.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.259).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1078).
- The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (276).
- The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (149).
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction
The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Rays but are 1-4 in their last 5 visits in Tampa.
In this Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -150 home favorites. I like the Rays at home in this one, as Griffin Jax has been the better pitching option in this matchup. He has been red-hot, with one earned run or less in five of his last six starts, while on the other hand, Patrick Sandoval has a 1.79 WHIP this season and has given up 11 runs in his last three starts. The Rays have been red-hot against lefties in their last 5 games and have a 1.40 bullpen ERA, while the Red Sox average just 1.8 runs against righties in that span. Take the Rays to win at home.