In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, July 1st in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 52‑31 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 28‑17 home record and are coming off a 7‑2 home win against the Reds. They will face the Diamondbacks and the Pirates next.
The Brewers have a .255 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. William Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average. Jake Bauers leads the team in RBI with 50, adding a team‑high 15 home runs.
Shane Drohan (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 3‑2 record, 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 39‑45 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 20‑23 road record and are coming off a 2‑7 road defeat against the Brewers. They will face the Orioles and the Phillies next.
The Reds have a .227 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .270 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 59, adding a team‑high 16 home runs.
Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 5‑4 record, 3.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: July 1, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Drohan Record this season: 3-2 ERA: 3.12
- Home Record: 1-1
- Last 5 against Reds: 0-0
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last 10 games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
- The Brewers have won each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Reds’ last four games.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Wednesday games.
- The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Wednesday night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott Record this season: 5-4 ERA: 3.90
- Road Record: 3-2
- Last 5 against Brewers: 2-2
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Brewers have lost three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against the Reds following a home win.
- The Reds have covered the run line in 14 of their last 16 games as underdogs against the Brewers following a loss.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games at American Family Field.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have lost the first inning in each of their last three home games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the last six games between the Reds and Brewers have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Reds’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Reds’ last six road games against National League opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of Shane Drohan’s six previous appearances as a starter.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Jackson Chourio has hit at least one home run in four of the Brewers’ last seven home games against NL opponents.
- Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three road games against the Brewers.
- Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against NL opponents.
- Andrew Abbott has recorded six strikeouts in each of his last three road appearances.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Brewers rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (79).
- The Brewers rank T1st in the league for hits allowed this season (598).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (640).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.227).
Reds vs Brewers Prediction
The Brewers have won their last six meetings against the Reds, having won their last three meetings in Milwaukee.
In this Reds vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -165 home favorites. I like the Reds in a bounce-back spot today with Abbott on the mound, as the Brewers are going for a bullpen game. The Reds are better than the Brewers against southpaws and Abbott’s two of his last three starts have been quality ones, while sitting on an efficient 3.17 road ERA. I will take a stab with the Reds and a nice +140 price in this one.