In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 12th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 43-51 this year after they split the first two games by scores of 4-0 and 3-5. In game two, Cincinnati led 2-0 in the fourth inning, but they only scored one run in the last five innings for the loss. The Reds recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Lowe, who went 2-4 with one home run and one RBI. Lodolo allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Garcia picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati lost two out of three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Orioles.
This season, Cincinnati has a 4.48 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while they have scored 391 runs with a .229 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 19 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 15 home runs and 44 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 5-5 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 101.0 innings pitched this year.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Chicago Cubs are 53-42 this season after they won game two by a score of 5-3 last night. Chicago took a 3-2 lead in the sixth inning and added two more in the seventh for the win. The Cubs recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Bregman, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Assad allowed seven hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Pomeranz picked up the win and Thornton got the save. Prior to this series, Chicago won two out of three against the Orioles, but lost two out of three against the Cardinals before that.
This season, Chicago has a 4.34 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while they have scored 476 runs with a .244 batting average and a .336 on base percentage. Dansby Swanson has led the Cubs with 16 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Ian Happ has added 17 home runs and 42 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Matthew Boyd, who is 4-1 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 39.2 innings pitched this season.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Reds have won 19 of their last 20 day games following a home loss.
- The Cubs have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against the Reds following a road win.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games following a home loss.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against the Reds following a road win.
- The Reds have won the first inning in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.
- The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games at Great American Ball Park.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have lost seven of their last eight day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against the Reds.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Reds’ last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Reds’ last nine home games against National League opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in 12 of the Cubs’ last 13 road games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four games.
- Andrew Abbott has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against NL opponents.
- Andrew Abbott has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Reds as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Matthew Boyd has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last eight day games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last three day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank 28th in the league for hits this season (722).
- The Reds rank 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (892).
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (412).
- The Cubs rank 29th in the league for home runs allowed this season (147).
Reds vs Cubs Prediction
Cincinnati comes into this matchup looking for a much needed series win, but they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games. The Reds are 22-27 at home this year, while the Cubs are 26-23 on the road. Chicago has won three of their last five games and they have scored 5+ runs in all three of those wins. The Cubs are starting Boyd, who has allowed five earned runs in his last 21.2 innings, while Abbott has allowed 3, 2, 3, 1, and 1 earned run in his last five starts. This is a solid pitching matchup and I like the under here.