In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 21st at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 79-76 this season after they won the first three games in this series by scores of 1-0, 7-4, and 6-3. In their game three win, Cincinnati blew an early lead, but scored four of the last five runs to pull away with the victory. The Reds recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Stephenson and Steer, who both had two RBIs in the win. Cincinnati started Littell, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Pagan picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Reds won two out of three against the Cardinals, but lost all three against the Athletics before that. Cincinnati has won four of their last five games and they are third in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 696 runs with a .245 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 20 home runs and 83 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 21 home runs and 74 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 9-7 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 156.1 innings pitched this season.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Chicago Cubs are 88-67 this year after they lost game three by a score of 6-3 on Saturday night. Chicago led 1-0 in the third inning and they cut the deficit to 4-3 in the eighth, but couldn’t get any closer in the defeat. The Cubs recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by McGuire, who went 2-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Chicago started Assad, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Pomeranz picked up the loss in relief.
Prior to this series, the Cubs won all three against the Pirates and two out of three against the Rays. Chicago has won seven of their last ten games and they are second in the NL Central standings. The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 750 runs with a .249 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Seiya Suzuki has led Chicago with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has added 29 home runs and 90 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, who is 10-6 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 116.2 innings pitched this year.
Why the Cubs will beat the Reds
- The Cubs have won five of their last six games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Reds have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against the Cubs following a home win.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Fourteen of the Reds’ last 16 day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Cubs and Reds.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last five day games at Great American Ball Park.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL opponents.
- Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in three of the Reds’ last four games.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with the Cubs as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in day games.
- Ian Happ has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four day games.
- Kyle Tucker has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances.
Reds vs Cubs Prediction
Cincinnati is trying to fight in the NL wild card race and they have won four games in a row, but they need to keep it going if they want to make up some ground. The Reds are 43-34 at home this year, while the Cubs are 42-38 on the road. Chicago has clinched a playoff spot already and they are starting Taillon, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. Cincinnati is starting Abbott, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts. Abbott was dominant earlier this year, but I don’t like how he has looked over the last few weeks. Take the Cubs here.