The Seattle Mariners and the Cincinnati Reds meet on Tuesday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Reds vs Mariners prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Reds vs Mariners pick.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Mariners got off to a middling start this year, splitting a four-game series 2-2 with the Oakland Athletics. Seattle would lose two of three to the Detroit Tigers in the next set, then got swept in three games versus the San Francisco Giants. Against the Houston Astros, the Mariners finally won a series with two victories in three games, and then Seattle beat the Texas Rangers in their first pair last weekend. On Saturday in a 9-2 win, the Mariners’ Luke Raley posted two hits, a run, and three RBI. Starter Bryan Woo pitched 7.0 innings with one earned.
On Sunday, the Mariners scored twice in the first inning and were able to power out a 3-1 victory in the end with a tepid six team hits. Seattle got a two-run homer from Cal Raleigh, and Randy Arozarena had the other RBI. Starter Logan Gilbert lasted 5.0 innings with one earned on three hits and a walk alongside seven Ks.
For the starting pitcher role in the Tuesday game, Seattle will send out Luis Castillo. So far, over his first three starts, Castillo is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 17.0 total innings. In his career, Castillo is 74-77 with a 3.54 ERA in 214 starts overall.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Over on the Reds’ side, they lost two of three to the San Francisco Giants in their first set of the year. Cincinnati would do the same versus the Texas Rangers, then fell in three of four games versus the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds finally won a series with two wins in three games versus the San Francisco Giants and kept it going with wins Friday and Saturday versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. In a 5-2 victory Saturday, Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz bagged a grand slam, while Andrew Abbott put up 5.0 innings with one earned in the start.
On Sunday, the Reds scored twice in both the third and fifth innings on the way to a 4-0 victory. Cincinnati held the Pirates to just two team hits on the other side. Santiago Espinal had two hits with two RBI, while starting pitcher Hunter Greene lasted 7.0 clean frames with two hits, one walk, and eight Ks.
It’ll be Nick Lodolo in the starter slot for the Reds on Tuesday. This year, Lodolo is 2-1 with a nice 0.96 ERA in three starts and 18.2 total innings. Over his career, Lodolo is 17-15 with a 4.27 ERA in 50 starts.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Mariners have lost each of their last 10 Tuesday games.
- The Reds have won 11 of their last 13 games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Tuesday games as favorites.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games.
- The Mariners have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Great American Ball Park.
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won each of their last seven night games against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Reds have lost five of their last six games against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last four games.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against the Mariners following a win.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against the Reds.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mariners’ last four games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Reds’ last six night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last nine night games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mariners’ last nine night games against NL Central opponents.
Reds vs Mariners Prediction
I’ll stay with the Reds. Lodolo should be able to start things off well here, but he’ll need some help from the bats and pen if Cincinnati wants to bag an opener win. Lodolo is 1-1 over his last pair of starts, but he’s given up zero earned runs in 12.2 innings on seven hits and one walk during that time. Lodolo has gone at least 6.0 innings in all three starts thus far. As for Castillo, he’s made it at least 5.0 innings in each of his first three starts, posting just four earned across 17.0 total frames on 13 hits and six walks. It should be a pretty good starting pitcher matchup.
Cincinnati had a nice all-around effort on Sunday versus the Pirates, despite everyone not named Santiago Espinal accounting for just four hits total. The pitching staff were the real heroes, as the bullpen posted 2.0 innings with no hits, no walks, and one K behind Greene’s great outing. If the Reds can keep that going (and get the offense more involved), they’ll be in excellent shape on Tuesday.