The Seattle Mariners and the Cincinnati Reds meet Wednesday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Reds vs Mariners prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Reds vs Mariners pick.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
Seattle began their year with a series versus the Oakland Athletics, posting two wins in a four-game set for a split. The Mariners would then lose two of three to the Detroit Tigers before getting swept by the San Francisco Giants. Seattle managed a series win versus the Houston Astros ahead of a sweep of the Texas Rangers over the weekend. The Mariners won those three games 5-3, 9-2, and 3-1. In Sunday’s victory, Seattle got a two-run homer from Cal Raleigh. Logan Gilbert went 5.0 innings in the start with one earned run on three hits and a walk.
In the Tuesday opener versus the Reds, Seattle had an early 2-0 lead and were also up 4-2 at one point in an 8-4 loss. The Mariners got three hits, two runs, two homers, and four RBI from Dylan Moore in the losing effort. The rest of the team only had three hits combined. Starting pitcher Luis Castillo left after 4.1 innings, six earned, seven hits, and four walks.
In the starting pitcher slot for Wednesday, the Mariners are sending out Bryce Miller. This year in his three starts, Miller is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA over 16.0 innings total. Miller is 20-17 with a 3.57 ERA in 59 career starts.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Over on the Reds’ side, they fell in two of three to the San Francisco Giants in their first series of the season. Cincinnati would fall again in two of three versus the Texas Rangers, then lost in three of four games versus the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds would win a series with two victories in three games versus the San Francisco Giants, then they kept it going with wins Friday and Saturday versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Sunday matchup was another victory, this time 4-0. Cincinnati’s Santiago Espinal provided two hits with two RBI in the win. Starting pitcher Hunter Greene had a nice outing on 7.0 clean frames, two hits, and a walk.
In Tuesday’s game, the Reds’ Austin Hays provided two hits, four RBI, and a homer. Nick Lodolo lasted 4.2 innings with four earned runs on five hits and a walk.
It’ll be Nick Martinez in the starting pitcher role for the Reds on Wednesday. This year, Martinez is 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in three starts over 16.1 innings. In his 243 career games (106 starts), Martinez has a 37-47 record with a 4.13 ERA and nine saves.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Reds have won 12 of their last 14 games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have lost three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a road loss.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games.
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won four of their last five games.
- The Reds have lost five of their last six home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last six home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday games.
- The Mariners have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against the Reds.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in five of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mariners’ last five games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Reds’ last four home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six night games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.
Reds vs Mariners Prediction
I’ll go with Seattle. This one’s going to depend on how the starters do, however. Miller posted a 0-2 record over his first two starts with seven earned runs in 11.0 total innings on 13 hits and five walks. He’s coming off a nice outing in a no-decision versus the Rangers, though. Miller logged just one earned run on two hits and three walks in 5.0 innings there. As for Martinez, he’s given up a total of 11 earned runs in 16.1 innings. Martinez took a no-decision in his last outing as well, giving up four earned runs on seven hits and a walk in 5.2 innings versus the Giants.
The Mariners had a few bad innings in Tuesday’s loss, most notably the four-run fifth. Seattle gave up nine hits along the way, but the bullpen was good overall (outside of Gregory Santos’ 0.1 innings and two earned runs). Hopefully, Miller will be able to start things off well in the Wednesday matchup and take some heat off the relievers. This one seems like a coin flip, so I’m probably not messing with it.