In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, May 18th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 24-23 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 12-12 home record and are coming off a 6-0 win against the Pirates. They will face the Guardians and the Padres next.
The Phillies have a .235 batting average this season, .302 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .329 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 36. Kyle Schwarber adds a team high 20 home runs.
Andrew Painter (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 1-4 record, 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 24-23 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 11-12 away record and are coming off a 10-3 loss against the Guardians. They will face the Cardinals and the Mets next.
The Reds have a .226 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .392 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.81 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .302 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 31. Elly De La Cruz adds a team high 11 home runs.
Nick Lodolo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 0-1 record, 8.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: May 18, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Painter Record this season: 1-4 ERA: 6.21
- Home Record: 1-2
- Last 5 against Reds: –
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last 10 road games following a road loss.
- The Phillies have won seven of their last eight games.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park against teams that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo Record this season: 0-1 ERA: 8.68
- Road Record: 0-0
- Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as favorites against the Reds following a road win.
- The Reds have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Phillies following a loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Reds have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL Central opponents.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Phillies’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Phillies’ last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last 10 games.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last five home games against NL opponents.
- Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 14 games as favorites.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (20) this season.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- JJ Bleday has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL East opponents.
- Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
- Nick Lodolo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight road appearances against NL East opponents.
- Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 15 road games.
- Elly De La Cruz ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (57) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (452).
- The Phillies rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.265).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.226).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (221).
Reds vs Phillies Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Phillies have won their last two meetings in Philadelphia.
In this Reds vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -125 home favorites. Both pitchers have been terrible in this matchup with a combined 14.89 ERA, with Lodolo looking abysmal in his two starts this season. The Reds have the 27th bullpen ERA and the Phillies’ offense has been cooking lately with 23 runs in their last three games. The Reds’ last six games have gone over the total and I expect another high-scoring affair today. Take the over 10 runs.