In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, August 1st at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 52-57 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 8-7. In game two, Cincinnati trailed 7-5 in the eighth inning, but they rallied for three runs in the bottom of the eighth for the win. The Reds recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Stewart, who went 2-5 with one home run and four RBIs. Greene allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Pagan got the win. Prior to this series, Cincinnati lost two out of three against the Guardians, but did win two out of three against the Cardinals before that.
This season, Cincinnati has a 4.44 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while they have scored 451 runs with a .231 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 23 home runs and 84 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 18 home runs and 48 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 5-6 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 117.0 innings pitched this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 55-56 this season after they lost game two by a score of 7-8 last night. Pittsburgh led 2-0, 3-2, and 7-5, but Skenes was disappointing and the bullpen blew the game. The Pirates recorded 12 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Mangum, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Skenes allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Dotel blew the save and picked up the loss. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks and two out of three against the Cubs.
This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.29 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while they have scored 572 runs with a .260 batting average and a .336 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 23 home runs and 71 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added 17 home runs and 69 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft, who is 10-4 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 122.1 innings pitched this season.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The underdogs have won nine of the Reds’ last 10 games.
- The Pirates have lost each of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Pirates’ last eight games.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
- The Reds have won the first inning in five of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Reds have lost eight of their last nine home games following a win.
- The Pirates have won four of their last five road games following a road loss.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last six Saturday night games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in six of their last seven road games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
- The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Eleven of the Pirates’ last 12 games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Reds’ last nine night games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Braxton Ashcraft’s last six road appearances as a starter.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in six of the last seven night games between the Pirates and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last five home games against NL Central opponents.
- Andrew Abbott has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games.
- Sal Stewart has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 16 games against NL Central opponents.
- Elly De La Cruz is one of only nine players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last five games against the Reds.
- Braxton Ashcraft has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with the Pirates as road favorites.
- Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
- Braxton Ashcraft has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with the Pirates as road favorites.
- Nick Gonzales ranks 4th in the league in Hits (127) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1038).
- The Reds rank T28th in the league for hits this season (842).
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1004).
- The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1047).
Reds vs Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh’s losing streak was extended to four on Friday, as their bullpen continues to really hurt them. The Pirates are 26-28 on the road this year, while the Reds are 25-30 at home. Cincinnati has won three of their last four games, but they have allowed 6+ in three of their last five. The Reds are starting Abbott, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts, while Ashcraft has allowed 4+ earned runs in four of his last five outings. I am going to back the over here, as neither pitching staff has been consistent.