In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, March 26th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds were 83-79 last season and they finished third in the NL Central standings, which was 14 games behind the Brewers for first. Cincinnati started the year with a 6-4 loss against the Giants at home and they lost two of the three games in that series. The Reds did a great job of hovering around .500 all season and they were able to win eight of their last 11 games to sneak into the postseason. Cincinnati played the Dodgers in the Wild Card round, but they were swept 2-0. The Reds went 45-36 at home and 38-43 on the road, while they scored 716 runs and allowed 681 runs last year.
Last season, Cincinnati had a 3.86 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .233 opponent batting average, while they scored 716 runs with a .245 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz led the team with 22 home runs and 86 RBIs, while Spencer Steer added 21 home runs and 75 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who went 10-7 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 166.1 innings pitched last season.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox went 89-73 last year and they finished third in the AL East standings, which was five games behind the Blue Jays and Yankees. Boston started the 2025 season with a 5-2 win over the Rangers on the road, but they lost three of the four games in that series. The Red Sox were below .500 after June, but they finished the season playing strong over the last three months to make the postseason. Boston lost in the Wild Card round to the Yankees in game three. The Red Sox went 48-33 at home and 41-40 on the road, while they scored 786 runs and allowed 676 runs last year.
Last season, Boston had a 3.70 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while they scored 786 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Trevor Story led the team with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs, while Jarren Duran added 16 home runs and 84 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 205.1 innings pitched last year.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
- The underdogs have won three of the Red Sox’s last four games at Great American Ball Park.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Reds’ last 10 games at Great American Ball Park.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games against National League opponents.
- The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as road favorites.
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last five games against American League opponents.
- The Red Sox have won five of their last six road openers.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six road openers.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against American League opponents.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Red Sox’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Seven of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Reds at Great American Ball Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last nine home games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as road favorites.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Reds as home underdogs against AL opponents.
- Will Benson has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two games against AL opponents.
- Eugenio Suarez ranked 5th in the league in Home Runs (49) last season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Trevor Story has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances against the Reds.
- Wilyer Abreu has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Triston Casas has hit a home run in four of his last five road appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Garrett Crochet ranked 1st in the league for total Strikeouts (255) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds ranked 7th in the league for opponent batting average last season (.233).
- The Reds ranked 7th in the league for hits allowed last season (1260).
- The Red Sox ranked 1st in the league for doubles last season (324).
- The Red Sox ranked 4th in the league for hits last season (1414).
Reds vs Red Sox Prediction
Both of these teams were able to sneak into the postseason last year, so they will look to continue that momentum with a win to start their season. Boston is starting Crochet, who is one of the best arms in the MLB, while Cincinnati is going with Abbott, who was excellent last year. The Red Sox were a powerful offensive team last season and I think that will continue here, so I will back Boston on the road behind Crochet.