Houston Astros (78-55) vs. San Diego Padres (71-63)
September 4, 2021 8:40 pm EDT
The Line: San Diego Padres -111 / Houston Astros -120; Over/Under: -7.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Houston Astros and the San Diego Padres meet Saturday in MLB action from Petco Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game set over the weekend. In the opener on Friday, the Astros secured a victory. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place.
Houston played the Mariners this week, bagging a Monday win before losses in the next two games. On Friday in the opener versus the Padres, Houston scored three runs in the fourth inning on the way to a 6-3 win. Jose Urquidy lasted 4.1 innings with two earned on five hits and one walk.
Starting pitcher for the Astros on Saturday will be Framber Valdez. Across his 17 starts this year Valdez has a 9-4 record with a 2.91 ERA and 99 strikeouts over 105.0 innings of work.
Over on the Padres’ side, they played the Diamondbacks this week, posting wins Monday and Tuesday before a loss in the finale. In the Friday matchup, the Padres had a brief lead early but couldn’t keep up. Jake Arrieta put up 5.0 frames with three earned, three hits and one walk.
For the starter gig in the Saturday game, the Padres will turn to Joe Musgrove. This year in 148.1 innings Musgrove has 108 hits, 51 runs (47 earned), 16 homers allowed, 39 walks, 169 Ks and a 2.85 ERA.
The Astros are 5-2 in their last seven in game two of a series and 51-25 in their last 76 Saturday games. Houston is 3-9 in their last 12 interleague road games and the under is 4-1 in their last five in game two of a series.
Meanwhile, the Padres are 13-6 in their last 19 at home versus a lefty starter and 3-7 in their last 10 Saturday games. San Diego is 1-5 in their last six versus a lefty starter and the under is 4-1-1 in their last six in game two of a series.
PICK: I’m going to try the Padres here. Musgrove is coming off a complete game shutout of the Angels, posting three hits, two walks and nine Ks along the way. Over his last seven starts, Musgrove has given up more than two earned just once—a six-earned, 10-hit dud versus the Diamondbacks. As for Valdez, he’s got just five earned over his last three starts so I like him to do well here also. Should be a good matchup all around but I like San Diego slightly better.
