In this article, we will formulate a San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 12, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies (54-40, 24-24 Away) won three consecutive series after defeating the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, and Cincinnati Reds, but couldn’t make it four in a row after losing to the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies also lost Game 1 of the current series against the Padres, 4-2. Ranger Suarez took the loss after allowing three runs (one earned) on six hits with five strikeouts and three walks in 6.2 innings of work.
This year, the Phillies average 4.62 runs per game (9th in the MLB) on a .257/.330/.407 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Phillies’ staff has a 3.66 ERA (7th) and 1.25 WHIP (12th). Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with a .254 batting average, 30 home runs, and 69 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Phillies is Zack Wheeler, who is 9-3 in 18 starts this season, with a 2.17 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 116.0 innings.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres (51-43, 30-17 Home) lost to the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies, beat the Texas Rangers, and split with the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego opened the series against the Phillies with a 4-2 victory on Friday. Ryan Bergert pitched for 4.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and two walks. Jeremiah Estrada was credited with the win.
This season, the Padres average 4.01 runs per game (24th in the MLB) on a .245/.315/.374 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.69 ERA (10th) and 1.24 WHIP (10th). Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .292 batting average, 17 home runs, and 55 RBI this season.
Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres on Saturday. The 38-year-old right-hander has a 0-1 record in one start this year with a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 3.2 innings.
Why the Phillies will beat the Padres
- The Phillies have won each of their last six road games against the Padres following a loss.
- The Padres have lost eight of their last nine games against the Phillies at Petco Park following a home win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a loss.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games at Petco Park following a home win.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Saturday day games as underdogs.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last eight games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Phillies’ last 13 games as favorites against National League opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (712).
- The Padres rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (81).
- The Phillies rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.329).
- The Phillies are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Phillies won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, while this season, the teams are tied at two wins apiece. I am going with the Phillies here because of Zack Wheeler, who has been fantastic this season and already dominated in his latest start against the Padres. Wheeler shut them out in eight innings in a 4-0 win on the first day of this month. He hasn’t allowed more than one run in his previous six starts. Yu Darvish, on the other hand, returned from a lengthy injury and is still not ready for 6+ innings. This mathcup is clearly in Wheeler’s favor, so I am going with the Phillies.