In this article we will formulate a Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 12th at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Rays Coming Off Nice Series Win
The Tampa Bay Rays are 46-47 this year and they have lost four of their last six games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series win against the Yankees, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Rays lost all three against the Rangers, won two out of three against the Royals, and won two out of three against the Nationals. Tampa Bay is 3-5 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the AL East.
The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 370 runs with a .236 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Isaac Paredes is batting .263 with 15 home runs and 50 RBI’s for the Rays this season. Tampa Bay has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last six games.
Guardians Pitching Staff was Beat Up
The Cleveland Guardians are 57-35 this season and they have split their last six games. Cleveland is coming off of a series loss against Detroit, where they lost three out of four games and allowed 23 runs in the last three games in the series. Prior to that series, the Guardians won two out of three against the Giants, won two out of three against the White Sox, and lost three out four against the Royals. Cleveland is 6-9 in their last 15 games, but they continue to lead the AL Central.
The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 450 runs with a .245 batting average and a .318 on base percentage. Josh Naylor is batting .248 with 22 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. Cleveland has scored at least five runs in three of their last six games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley, who is 3-4 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 61.1 innings pitched this year. Bradley has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Carlos Carrasco, who is 3-6 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 81.0 innings pitched this season. Carrasco has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five starts.
Why the Rays will beat the Guardians
- The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight night games after playing the previous day.
- The home team has won five of the Rays’ last six games.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against American League opponents.
- The home team has covered the run line in each of the Guardians’ last four games.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against the Guardians at Tropicana Field.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the last five games between the Guardians and Rays at Tropicana Field have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Guardians’ last seven games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last six games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last three games.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Randy Arozarena has recorded a Double in four of the Rays’ last five games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Isaac Paredes has scored a run in four of the Rays’ last five night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Josh Lowe has recorded at least one Single in each of his six previous appearances against the Guardians after playing the previous day.
- Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 13 appearances in night games.
- Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three games against AL Central opponents.
- Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rays’ last four night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Josh Naylor has recorded at least one Double in three of the Guardians’ last four night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Andres Gimenez has scored at least one run in each of the Guardians’ last five games at Tropicana Field.
- Carlos Carrasco has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
- Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians’ last six games against the Rays.
- Josh Naylor has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 14 Friday appearances against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Carlos Carrasco has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
- Steven Kwan has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Steven Kwan has recorded an RBI in each of the Guardians’ last four games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Josh Naylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 Friday appearances against AL teams that held a losing record.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland is coming off of a rough series in Detroit, as their pitching staff really let them down, and their lead in the AL Central is starting to shrink. The Guardians are 27-24 on the road, while Tampa Bay is 25-26 at home. Cleveland is above .500 on the road, but they play much better at home, which was very clear in that Detroit series. Tampa Bay is starting Taj Bradley, who has been lights out over the last few weeks, and I think he can out duel Carrasco here. My Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians prediction is for the Rays to win.