The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners meet Saturday in Game 1 ALDS MLB action at T-Mobile Park. Here’s a Tigers vs Mariners Prediction. This article will include a Tigers vs Mariners Pick.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
The Detroit Tigers are coming off a 3-game series with the Guardians. The Detroit Tigers are batting .218 on the season, have a .325 OBP, and a .287 slugging percentage. The Detroit Tigers pitching staff has a 2.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Javier Baez leads the Detroit Tigers with 5 hits and 1 RBI, while Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene have combined for 8 and 2 RBI.
Troy Melton gets the ball for the Detroit Tigers, and he is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 36 strikeouts this season. Melton is 0-1 with a 108 ERA and 0 strikeouts. This will be Melton’s first career game against the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Seattle Mariners are 90-72 on the year and play for the first time since September 28. The Seattle Mariners are batting .244 on the season, have a .320 OBP, and a .420 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Seattle Mariners with 174 hits and 95 RBI, while J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh have combined for 298 hits and 183 RBI.
George Kirby gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 10-8 with a 4.21 ERA and 137 strikeouts this season. Kirby is 1-1 with a 0.00 ERA and 6 strikeouts in his postseason career. Kirby is 2-4 with a 7.48 ERA and 32 strikeouts in his career against the Detroit Tigers.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: October 4, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby Record this season: 10-8 ERA: 4.21
- Home Record: 5-4
- Last 5 against Tigers: 1-4
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won each of their last seven home games against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Tigers have lost 10 of their last 11 games following a win.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Troy Melton Record this season (inc. playoffs): 3-3 ERA: 3.52
- Road Record: 1-2
- Last 5 against Mariners: –
Why the Detroit Tigers will win
- The underdogs have won seven of the last eight games between the Tigers and Mariners.
- The Mariners have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Tigers following a loss.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 night games against the Tigers at T-Mobile Park following a loss.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last nine night games at T-Mobile Park following a win.
- The Tigers have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against the Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
- The Tigers have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
- The Tigers have won the first inning in each of their last three games as underdogs against the Mariners.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Tigers’ last five road playoff games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Mariners’ last seven night games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Mariners’ last six night games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Tigers’ last six night games against American League opponents.
Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts
- Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one Double in each of the Mariners’ last four home games against AL opponents.
- Julio Rodriguez has hit a home run in four of the Mariners’ last five games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- George Kirby has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against AL opponents.
- George Kirby has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
- Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
- Cal Raleigh ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (60) this season.
Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Riley Greene has hit a home run in each of the Tigers’ last three games as underdogs against the Mariners.
- Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against AL opponents.
- Riley Greene ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (36) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (234).
- The Mariners rank T29th in the league for triples this season (9).
- The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (61).
- The Tigers rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (36).
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction
Just because the Tigers won a playoff series doesn’t mean all is well in Detroit. The Tigers still had a historic collapse to end the season and weren’t all that convincing against Cleveland. Now, the Tigers are jumping into another series and throwing a rookie pitcher on the mound, a rookie who was absolutely horrible in 0.1 innings against the Guardians and was responsible for the loss.
I have no idea what to expect from Melton, and I’m not interested to find out with money on the line. Kirby had a horrible September, but he’s earned his stripes, and he has a 3.38 ERA and .227 allowed batting average in 66.2 home innings. I’m rolling with the Mariners at home.