In this article we will formulate a Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 21st at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Nationals Offense is Hot
The Washington Nationals are 46-53 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Washington has won the first two games in this series by scores of 8-5 and 5-4. Prior to this series, the Nationals won two out of three against the Brewers, lost all three against the Mets, and lost three out of four against the Cardinals. Washington is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are fourth in the NL East.
The Washington pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .254 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 415 runs with a .239 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .267 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has scored at least five runs in four of their last five games.
Reds Try to Avoid Fourth Straight Loss
The Cincinnati Reds are 47-52 this year and they have lost three games in a row. Cincinnati has dropped the first two games in this series and they have allowed 13 runs in the process. Prior to this series, the Reds won two out of three against the Marlins, won three out of four against the Rockies, and lost all three against the Tigers. Cincinnati is 5-4 in their last nine games and they are fourth in the NL Central.
The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 441 runs with a .230 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .255 with 17 home runs and 44 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has scored at least five runs in seven of their last nine games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Jake Irvin, who is 7-8 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 116.0 innings pitched this year. Irvin has allowed six earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Mets and Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 9-6 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 106.1 innings pitched this year. Abbott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
Why the Reds will beat the Nationals
- The Reds have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Nationals have lost five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last 12 games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Sunday games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against the Nationals.
- The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against National League opponents.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games at Nationals Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Nationals’ last nine day games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Reds’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 day games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last three day games between the Reds and Nationals.
Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts
- Lane Thomas has recorded at least one Single in each of the Nationals’ last seven day games.
- Lane Thomas has scored at least one run in each of the Nationals’ last five day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Jesse Winker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Joey Gallo has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
- Joey Gallo has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Jesse Winker has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in each of the Reds’ last four games as underdogs against NL opponents.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded an RBI in four of the Reds’ last five road games against the Nationals.
- Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances at Nationals Park.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 12 games against the Nationals.
- Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- TJ Friedl has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
- Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against NL East opponents.
Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati continues to be a below average team this season and right when it looks like they are going to turn a corner, they fall apart. The Reds have lost three games in a row, but their offense has done a pretty good job of scoring runs. Cincinnati is starting Abbott, who has had a solid season and has been sharp recently. Washington is going with Irvin, who also has solid numbers this year, but he has had two very bad outings in a row. It feels like Irvin is running out of gas, as the number of innings for him grows, and I think the Cincinnati offense is going to have another great day at the plate. My Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds prediction is for Cincinnati to win.