The Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Yankees meet on Saturday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. This will be the second installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Yankees vs Brewers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Yankees vs Brewers pick.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Brewers are looking to post another great regular season in 2025—with a better finish. Milwaukee went a nice 93-69 last year, which put the team in first place among the National League Central for the second consecutive season. The Brewers were ousted from the postseason quickly, however, losing to the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card Series.
In their Thursday season opener versus the Yankees, Milwaukee was down 2-0 early but kept it close with a run of their own in the third inning. The Brewers would give up a couple in the seventh, though, dooming them to a 4-2 loss in the end. Starting pitcher Freddy Peralta lasted 5.0 innings with two earned runs on four hits and one walk with eight Ks. Vinny Capra logged a solo home run, and Brice Turang had the other RBI.
In the starting role on Saturday, the Brewers will send out Nestor Cortes. In his three spring games (two starts), Cortes hit a 0-1 record with a 3.27 ERA and 14 Ks in 11.0 innings. Cortes went 9-10 in the regular season last year, notching a 3.77 ERA in 31 games (30 starts). In his career, Cortes is 33-21 with a 3.80 ERA in 135 games (86 starts) alongside 575 Ks in 568.0 frames.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Over on the Yankees’ side, they were able to notch a division championship last season as well, notching a 94-68 overall record to finish atop the American League East. New York got all the way to the World Series at the end of their campaign, when they were eventually ousted by the champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
On Thursday in their opener, New York got a leadoff home run from catcher Austin Wells (the first leadoff home run from a catcher on Opening Day in MLB history, in fact). Another long ball came from Anthony Volpe as the seven hits were spread across seven players. Starting pitcher Carlos Rodon had a nice outing himself with 5.1 innings, one earned run, four hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts.
As a starter for Saturday’s game two, the Yankees will roll out their new toy in Max Fried. Last season, Fried went 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA in 29 starts. He posted 166 total strikeouts across 174.1 innings of work. Fried is 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA in 168 career regular-season games (151 starts). Across 884.1 innings of work during that time, Fried has 863 strikeouts on his card.
Why the New York Yankees will win
- The Brewers have lost four of their last five games.
- The Yankees have won four of their last five games against the Brewers.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last three games against the Brewers.
- The Yankees have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine home games.
- The Yankees have won the first inning in each of their last four games against the Brewers.
- The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won each of their last seven games against American League opponents following a road loss.
- The Yankees have lost each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games against American League opponents following a road loss.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have won the first inning in each of their last three games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Four of the Brewers’ last five games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Fifteen of the Yankees’ last 20 home games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Brewers’ last eight day games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last five home games.
Yankees vs Brewers Prediction
I may take a stab at the Brewers in this one. Cortes’s start against his former team here will be an interesting sidebar—and it may prove to be an advantage for the ex-Yankee. Cortes had his ups and downs in 2024, resulting in a losing season on the mound. He’d gone a combined 17-6 over the previous two years, though, so if Milwaukee can get some of that magic in a return to form during the 2025 season, it’ll be very much welcome.
On Thursda,y Milwaukee fell victim to a couple of flukey runs in the seventh inning—one from a wild bounce off third base and one from a sub-par throw to the plate from right field. The more pressing concern is cashing in on hits against a solid Yankees offense in a hitter-friendly park, which the Brewers didn’t do all that well in the opener. If Milwaukee can get a good start out of Cortes in familiar surroundings, I think the Brewers can keep pace on the scoreboard. The pen will have to finish off the game strong, though.