In this article, we will formulate a Yankees vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, October 3rd in Game 1 of this ALDS series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 98-64 record this season and finished in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 55-26 home record and are coming off a 7-3 road loss against the Phillies.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a .258 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI with 101, adding a team-high 42 home runs.
Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 16-5 record, 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
New York Yankees Preview
The New York Yankees have a 93-68 record this season and finished in the 2nd place of the AL East. They have a 47-34 away record and are coming off a 9-2 home win against the Red Sox.
The New York Yankees have a .235 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .409 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Cody Bellinger is the team’s best hitter with a .264 batting average. Ben Rice leads the team in RBI with 97, adding a team-high 41 home runs.
Gerrit Cole (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees, and he has a 10-9 record, 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: October 3, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen Record this season: 16-5 ERA: 2.67
- Home Record: 9-3
- Last 5 against Yankees: 2-1
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Yankees have lost each of their last eight games at Tropicana Field following a win.
- The Rays have won eight of their last nine home games.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six playoff games as underdogs following a win.
- The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites following a road loss.
- The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight playoff games as underdogs.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four playoff games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Gerrit Cole Record this season: 10-9 ERA: 3.61
- Road Record: 6-5
- Last 5 against Rays: 3-1
Why the New York Yankees will win
- The Rays have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents following a road loss.
- The Yankees have won 11 of their last 12 night games against AL East opponents.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against the Yankees following a road loss.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Rays following a home win.
- The Yankees have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night playoff games.
- The Yankees have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Yankees’ last 12 night games against AL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Rays’ last five games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Yankees’ last 10 games against AL East opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the last eight night games between the Yankees and Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Jonathan Aranda has hit at least one home run in two of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL opponents.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded nine or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Jonathan Aranda has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (46) this season.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
- Ben Rice has hit at least one home run in three of the Yankees’ last four road games against the Rays.
- Gerrit Cole has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Gerrit Cole has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his seven previous appearances at Tropicana Field against opponents that held a winning record.
- Ben Rice has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last nine road games against the Rays.
- Ben Rice ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.534) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1145).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (409).
- The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.23).
- The Yankees rank 29th in the league for hits this season (1250).
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Rays but have lost two of their last three visits in Tampa.
In this Yankees vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -135 home favorites. I like the Rays to draw first blood in the series opener, as Drew Rasmussen has better season numbers than Gerrit Cole and has been in far better form, having given up one run or less in each of his last four starts. On the flip side, Cole has given up 3+ runs in two of his last three road starts and the Yankees have both a weaker offense and bullpen than the Rays lately. The Rays are also one of the best home teams in baseball, so take them to win this one on the moneyline.