The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet Thursday in Wild Card Game 3 MLB action at Yankee Stadium. Here’s a Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction. This article will include a Yankees vs Red Sox Pick.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox look to make their first ALDS since the 2021 season. The Boston Red Sox are batting .219 on the season, have a .324 OBP, and a .313 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 2.65 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Boston Red Sox with 4 hits and 3 RBI while Alex Bregman and Nate Eaton have combined for 5 hits and 1 RBI.
Connelly Early gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. Early will make his career postseason debut. This will be Early’s first career game against the New York Yankees.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The New York Yankees look to make the ALDS for the first time since the 2022 season. The New York Yankees are batting .258 on the season, have a .300 OBP, and a .354 slugging percentage. The New York Yankees pitching staff has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Aaron Judge leads the New York Yankees with 4 hits and 1 RBI while Anthony Volpe and Cody Bellinger have combined for 5 hits and 1 RBI.
Cam Schlittler gets the ball for the New York Yankees, and he is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 84 strikeouts this season. Schlittler will make his career postseason debut. This will be Schlittler’s first career game against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: October 2, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Cam Schlittler Record this season: 4-3 ERA: 2.96
- Home Record: 4-2
- Last 5 against Red Sox: –
Why the New York Yankees will win
- The Yankees have won each of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
- The Red Sox have lost four of their last five playoff games.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in seven of their last eight Thursday games.
- The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games.
- The Yankees have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against AL East opponents.
- The Yankees have won the first inning in five of their last six games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Connelly Early Record this season: 1-2 ERA: 2.33
- Road Record: 1-1
- Last 5 against Yankees: –
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won eight of their last nine playoff games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Yankees have lost six of their last seven playoff games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last nine playoff games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against the Red Sox following a win.
Total Runs Facts
- Thirteen of the Yankees’ last 14 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Yankees’ last six games.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
- Aaron Judge has hit at least one home run in three of the Yankees’ last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Anthony Volpe has recorded a hit in each of the Yankees’ last eight playoff games as favorites.
- Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.331) this season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games.
- Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
- Connor Wong has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances against the Yankees.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (849).
- The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (274).
- The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (324).
- The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1414).
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
You can argue the Red Sox should’ve already won this series, as things might have been different if Duran didn’t drop that ball in the outfield. That could have a carry-over effect in game 3 as the Yankees have to feel like they have new life. While both pitchers are rookies, it’s Early who has just 19.1 innings under his belt and made his debut less than a month ago. Now, Early is taking the mound in an elimination game in the Bronx. Tough, tough spot.
Schlittler has a much larger sample size of 73 innings, and the Yankees have won 7 of his last 8 starts. In 40.1 home innings, Schlittler has a 3.12 ERA and .242 allowed batting average. I trust Schlittler more in this spot and wouldn’t be shocked if Early struggles to adjust to the pressure of a game like this. He still hasn’t gotten his feet wet on the big stage. Give me the Yankees.