Lyoto Machida vs. Dan Henderson UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 4/16/16
Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida
UFC: Saturday, April 16, 2016 (Amalie Arena)
The Line: Lyoto Machida -355 / Dan Henderson +295 Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
Lyoto Machida and Dan Henderson fight Saturday night on on UFC on Fox 19 at the Amalie Arena.
Lyoto Machida enters this fight with a 22-7 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. Machida has split his last 14 fights and is coming off a June loss to Yoel Romero. Machida is averaging 2.63 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 53.3 percent. Machida is averaging 1.33 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 65.2 percent. Machida is clearly running out of gas in the tank as he approaches 38 years old and has lost three of his last four fights. When at the top of his game, Machida is one of the tougher fighters in UFC history due to his offensive speed and deep background in karate. Machida can win in a variety of ways but is most dangerous on his feet. However, Machida hasn’t been himself in quite some time. This will be Machida’s second fight in Florida.
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Dan Henderson enters this fight with a 31-14 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout. Henderson has lost six of his last eight fights and is coming off a November loss to Vitor Belfort. Henderson is averaging 2.4 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48.2 percent. Henderson is averaging 1.6 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54.3 percent. Speaking of a fighter way past his prime, Henderson has really piled up the losses the last three years, and it’s not getting better as he turns 46 in August. When in his top form, Henderson is an accurate striker who uses his legs well and has won six of his last seven victories by knockout. However, like his opponent, Henderson has very little left in the tank at this stage of his career. This will be Henderson’s first fight in Florida.
This be an interesting fight between a controversial rematch back in 2013 in which Machida won in a split decision. It could also be a complete disaster between two old guys who don’t have much left at this level of the UFC. Either way, Henderson is damn near 46 years old and has lost six of his last eight fights. It’s as bad as it gets in terms of form.
So, while Machida is losing his quickness, the one thing he needs to be effective, he should be able to win this fight.
I just can’t back Henderson.