Albert Tumenov vs. Gunnar Nelson UFC Fight Night 87 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 5/8/16
Gunnar Nelson vs. Albert Tumenov
UFC: Sunday, March 8, 2016 (Ahoy Rotterdam)
The Line: Albert Tumenov -170 / Gunnar Nelson +150 Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds
Albert Tumenov and Gunnar Nelson fight Sunday at the Ahoy Rotterdam during UFC Fight Night 87.
Albert Tumenov enters this fight with a 17-2 record and has won 65 percent of his fights by knockout. Tumenov has won his last five fights and is coming off a January win over Lorenz Larkin. Tumenov is averaging 4.23 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41.4 percent. Tumenov is averaging 0.28 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 20 percent. Tumenov continues to climb up the UFC rankings, and this will be his fourth fight since 2015. Tumenov is a striker at heart with incredible punching power and kicks to go along with his offense. Ten of Tumenov’s last 12 wins have come by knockout. The concern with Tumenov is that he’s not real comfortable on the canvas, but he is defending more than 83 percent of takedowns. This will be Tumenov’s first fight in the Netherlands.
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Gunnar Nelson enters this fight with a 14-2-1 record and has won 64 percent of his fights by submission. Nelson has split his last four fights and is coming off a December loss to Demian Maia. Nelson is averaging 1.86 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 55.7 percent. Nelson is averaging 1.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 58.3 percent. Nelson could use a bounce back win here after losing two of his last three fights. Nelson is a great wrestling and grappling artist who simply knows how to finish fights when he gets on the canvas. All of Nelson’s last three victories have come by submission. The concern is Nelson isn’t a great striker and can struggle at times when he doesn’t get the fight in his comfort zone. This will be Nelson’s first fight in the Netherlands.
When it’s a striker against a guy with a great ground game, I usually side with the wrestler. Guys with the better ground game tend to have more success against guys who rely solely on strikes. So, while this fight could go either way and should be a hell of a fight, Nelson has the advantage.
Look for Nelson to win his second fight since 2015.