Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Patrick Cummins UFC 198 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 5/14/16
UFC: Saturday, March 14, 2016 (Arena da Baixada)
The Line: Nogueira +210 / Cummins -250 Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: UFC Fight Pass
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Patrick Cummins fight Saturday night during UFC 198 at the Arena da Baixada.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira enters this fight with a 21-7 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by decision. Nogueira has lost four of his last six fights and is coming off a August loss to Maurício Rua. Nogueira is averaging 2.39 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 33.9 percent. Nogueira is averaging 0.74 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44.8 percent. Nogueira enters this fight in really bad form and is likely on his way out of the sport as he turns 40 next month. Nogueira simply doesn’t have much left in the tank at the point. Still, Nogueira has some power left in his strikes and is still one of the tougher fighters on the card who has only been knocked out twice in 28 fights. Nogueira can hang around unlike a lot of guys his age. This will be Nogueira’s third fight in Brazil, his home country.
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Patrick Cummins enters this fight with a 8-3 record and has 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Cummins has split his last four fights and is coming off a November loss to Glover Teixeira. Cummins is averaging 4.47 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 53.6 percent. Cummins is averaging 7.42 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53.5 percent. Cummins has been a little shaky as of late after once looking terrific a few years ago. There’s really no surprises with Cummins, as he’s a terrific takedown artist with great power in his strikes as well. It’s tough sledding for his oppoenent whenever Cummins gets him on the canvas and forces him to fight his fight. This will be Cummins’ fourth fight in Brazil.
Nogueira is unbackable right now in his current form and age, as there’s not much left with him to beat decent or above-average quality fighters. Cummins is still skilled and his relentless takedown attack and better athleticism should make the difference here.
In a fight where both fighters need the victory, I like the American to prevail.