Demian Maia vs. Matt Brown UFC 198 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 5/14/16
Matt Brown vs. Demian Maia
UFC: Saturday, March 14, 2016 (Arena da Baixada)
The Line: Demian Maia -280 / Matt Brown +240 Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds
Demian Maia and Matt Brown fight Saturday night during UFC 198 at the Arena da Baixada.
Demian Maia enters this fight with a 22-6 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by submission. Maia have won four straight fights and is coming off a December win over Gunnar Nelson. Maia is averaging 1.87 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44.2 percent. Maia is averaging 2.95 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 31.3 percent. Maia looked like he was close to retirement a couple of years ago but has turned things around quickly as he turns 39 later this year. Maia is still an impressive grappler who can wear down his opponent to a decision or finish the fight on the canvas as two of his last six wins have come by submission. Clearly dropping to welterweight has helped save Maia’s career. This will be Maia’s ninth fight in Brazil, his home country.
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Matt Brown enters this fight with a 22-13 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout. Brown has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a July win over Tim Means. Brown is averaging 3.84 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 54.2 percent. Brown is averaging 1.83 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 48.9 percent. Brown did a nice job of bouncing back from back-to-back losses and is now out to prove he’s still got it at 35 years old. Brown is obviously a violent and accurate striker who has won five of his last six fights by knockout. Brown has also improved his takedown defense and was the first person to make Means tap since 2010. This will be Brown’s first fight in Brazil.
Maia has been money ever since dropping to the welterweight division and is in far better form than Brown, who has lost two of his last three fights. Brown is likely going to struggle with Maia’s grind it out style as he wants a fight standing up. Of course, Maia also has the home crowd behind him which should also help.
I like Maia to get his fifth straight victory.