Jorge Masvidal vs. Lorenz Larkin UFC Fight Night 88 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 5/29/16
Larkin vs. Masvidal
UFC: Sunday, May 29, 2016 (Mandalay Bay Events Center)
The Line: Larkin -140 / Masvidal +120 Over/Under: 2.5 See the Latest Odds
Jorge Masvidal and Lorenz Larkin fight Sunday night at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in UFC Fight Night 88.
Jorge Masvidal enters this fight with a 29-10 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by decision. Masvidal has won four of his last six fights and is coming off a November loss to Benson Henderson. Masvidal is averaging 3.91 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46.8 percent. Masvidal is averaging 2.15 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 60.7 percent. Masvidal has a very versatile and effective offensive game that includes a variety of kicks and jabs. The problem with Masvidal in the past is that he’s been too conservative with his attack, often leading the questionable decisions. When Masvidal is pushing the issue offensively, he’s a pretty good balanced fighter. This will be Masvidal’s third fight in Las Vegas.
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Lorenz Larkin enters this fight with a 16-5 record and has won 63 percent of his fights by knockout. Larkin has lost four of his last six fights and is coming off a January loss to Albert Tumenov. Larkin is averaging 3.48 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46.2 percent. Larkin is averaging 0.2 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Larkin is now a rough 3-5 in UFC since making his debut in 2013, and he’s lost a lot of decisions. Larkin is an aggressive and violent striker with clear knockout power, but he has yet to polish his grappling and wrestling attack, making him ineffective once he goes to the canvas. At this point, it seems like Larkin is either knockout or bust. This will be Larkin’s fourth fight in Las Vegas.
I’m not sure I can back Larkin given his current form and his performances overall at the UFC level. Masvidal is far more versatile with his offensive attack and could take Larkin out of his comfort zone. Masvidal has also only been knocked out once in his 10 losses.
So, I’m going with the slight underdog here and backing Masvidal to win this fight.