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Sergio Pettis vs. Brandon Moreno UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 8/5/17

Moreno vs. Pettis

UFC: Saturday, August 5, 2017 (Arena Ciudad de Mexico)

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Sergio Pettis and Brandon Moreno fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 114 at the Arena Ciudad de Mexico.

Sergio Pettis enters this fight with a 15-2 record and has won 60 percent of his fights by decision. Pettis has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a January win over John Moraga. Pettis is averaging 4.02 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38.8 percent. Pettis is averaging 1.48 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42.3 percent. Pettis has been on a roll since his loss to Ryan Benoit and will fight for the second time in one year for the first time since 2015. Pettis has a very solid stand up game that includes him being very effective with his leg kicks, but it’s been his ground game that’s taken over recently, as he’s produced four takedowns in his last two fights and his last six wins have come by decision. Pettis is proving he can clinch and wrestle his way to victory while wearing down his opponents in the process. Pettis hasn’t finished a fighter since his 2013 win over James Porter. This will be Pettis’ first fight in Mexico.   

Sergio Pettis vs. Brandon Moreno UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 8/5/17

USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Moreno enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by submission. Moreno has won his last 11 fights and is coming off a April win over Dustin Ortiz. Moreno is averaging 3.25 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37.8 percent. Moreno is averaging 3.4 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42.8 percent. Moreno is now 3-0 in the UFC and still hasn’t lost a fight since his 2012 bout with Brenson Hansen. Moreno is coming off a fight in which he earned performance of the night honors, and he’s forced seven of his last nine opponents to tap. Moreno is averaging two takedowns per fight on the UFC level and is coming off a fight in which he forced a submission despite being taken down four times. Needless to say, Moreno has shown he’s deadly if a fight is taken to the canvas. This will be Moreno’s fourth fight in Mexico, his birthplace. 

Pets has shown enough ground game in his recent fights that suggests he can hold his own with Moreno either in the clinch or on the canvas. The problem is Moreno is more aggressive and successful with his takedowns, and he’s also more comfortable on the canvas with an unreal finish percentage. Pettis will have his hands full in this fight and will have to be perfect for five rounds if he’s going to come out on top. Not to mention Moreno is fighting in Mexico, where he will have a considerable crowd advantage, which is going to give The Assassin Baby an extra boost in the octagon.

I like Moreno to extend his winning streak to 12.

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