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Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis UFC 216 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/7/17

Lewis vs. Werdum

UFC: Saturday, October 7, 2017 (T-Mobile Arena)

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: PPV

Fabricio Werdum and Derrick Lewis fight Saturday during UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena.

Fabricio Werdum enters this fight with a 21-7-1 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by submission. Werdum has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a July loss to Alistair Overeem. Werdum is averaging 3.43 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50.8 percent. Werdum is averaging 1.64 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 31.2 percent. Werdum will fight for the fourth time since 2016 and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time. Werdum is an accurate striker who has two knockouts in his last six victories, but he’s a heavyweight who is most known for his grappling skills and ground game overall. Werdum has 10 submission vicious and has won countless medals in wresting and the Jiu-Jitsu Championships. Werdum has never been finished on the canvas, and five of his seven losses have come by decisions. This will be Werdum’s third fight in Las Vegas.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis UFC 216 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/7/17

USA TODAY Sports

Derrick Lewis enters this fight with a 18-5 record and has won 89 percent of his fights by knockout. Lewis has won six of his last seven fights and is coming off a June loss to Mark Hunt. Lewis is averaging 3.2 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50.9 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.59 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 26.6 percent. Lewis said he was going to retire from the sport the last time we saw him, but that decision was clearly short-lived. Lewis now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time. It’s no secret what Lewis is capable of and his game plan, as he’s your traditional heavyweight with extreme punching power and a reach of 79 inches. In fact, 14 of Lewis’ last 15 victories have come by knockout, and only four of his fights overall have had a different ending. Lewis is going to go down swinging one way or another. This will be Lewis’ fourth fight in Las Vegas. 

This is going to be a fun fight with Werdum looking to take advantage of his ground game and Lewis hoping to land that one big punch that hurts Vai Cavalo. It’s all about who can dictate the pace and force the opponent to fight his fight. Usually I side with the better ground game in fights like this, but Lewis does have decent takedown defense and he’s the significantly bigger fighter with a longer reach. It’s going to be dangerous for Werdum to come in, as we saw what happened against another power puncher in Stipe Miocic. 

This fight could go either way, and maybe I’m looking too much into Lewis’ power, but I’m leaning the American in this bout.

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