Max Holloway vs. Jose Aldo UFC 218 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 12/2/17
Aldo vs. Holloway
UFC: Saturday, December 2, 2017 (Little Caesars Arena)
The Line: Holloway -280 / Aldo +240 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
Max Holloway and Jose Aldo fight Saturday during UFC 218 at the Little Caesars Arena.
Jose Aldo enters this fight with a 26-3 record and has won 58 percent of his fights by knockout. Aldo has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a June loss to Holloway. Aldo is averaging 3.32 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43.7 percent. Aldo is averaging 0.78 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 72.2 percent. Aldo kind of took a beating in his last fight, and we’ve now seen him get knocked out twice in two of his last three bouts. Of course, when in good form, Aldo is one of the more balanced fighters in the UFC, as he can strike with the best, has above-average ground ability, some of the best takedown defense and his cardio is always top notch. Aldo can simply beat his opponent in a variety of ways, and that makes him dangerous no matter where the fight goes. However, after two recent losses, this is the most vurnable Aldo has been in his career. This will be Aldo’s first fight in Michigan.
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Max Holloway enters this fight with a 18-3 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by knockout. Holloway has won his last 11 fights and is coming off a June win over Aldo. Holloway is averaging 5.79 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Holloway is averaging 0.3 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 80 percent. Holloway still hasn't lost since his 2013 fight against Conor McGregor and will take on his eighth fight in the last two years. Holloway is a volume striker who tags his opponent quite a bit over the course of a round and has produced six knockouts during this 10-fight winning streak. Holloway is also one of the best fighters when it comes to defending the takedown, as he wants to force his opponent to fight his style. His length, volume attacks and athleticism make him a very difficult fighter to matchup against. This will be Holloway’s first fight in Michigan.
I picked Aldo in the last fight due to his striking power, IQ and balance, as I thought his leg kicks would make the difference and open things up in other areas. I was wrong. Holloway had his way with Aldo for the most part and ended things in the third round. While it’s not easy to beat a quality fighter twice, I’m not sure what you can see from the first meeting and think Aldo can make enough adjustments to be on the winning side. Holloway’s youth, aggressiveness and quickness in the octagon gives the older Aldo problems, and one good shot changes everything for the 31-year-old. Holloway is simply the better fight at this stage of their careers.
I like Holloway to keep his belt.