Robbie Lawler vs. Rafael dos Anjos UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 12/16/17
dos Anjos vs. Lawler
UFC: Saturday, December 16, 2017 (Bell MTS Place)
The Line: Lawler -125 / dos Anjos +100 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos fight Saturday on UFC on Fox 26 at the Bell MTS Place.
Robbie Lawler enters this fight with a 28-11 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by knockout. Lawler has won six of his last seven fights and is coming off a July win over Donald Cerrone. Lawler is averaging 3.57 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45.2 percent. Lawler is averaging 0.78 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 65.2 percent. Lawler bounced back nicely from his loss to Tyron Woodley and has a chance to win back-to-back fights for the first time since 2014. Lawler relies on his hand speed and knockout power, as five of his last 10 victories have come by knockout and he’s shown many times he has one punch KO potential. Lawler doesn’t have the most proven ground game and has been submitted five times, but he does have great takedown defense and has been taken down just once in his last three fights. Lawler usually forces his opponent to beat him at his own game, and not many can hang with him in terms of standup. This will be Lawler’s first fight in Canada.
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Rafael dos Anjos enters this fight with a 27-9 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by decision. dos Anjos has won seven of his last nine fights and is coming off a September win over Neil Magny. dos Anjos is averaging 3.37 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42.3 percent. dos Anjos is averaging 2.23 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40.8 percent. dos Anjos has put back-to-back losses behind him with back-to-back victories, and he has a chance to finish the year with a perfect 3-0 record. Only five of dos Anjos’ victories have come by knockout, but he’s an aggressive, pressure fighter who throws tons of strikes throughout a fight and loves body kicks. dos Anjos is simply a tough fighter who can take shots and keep coming forward, and he’s usually the aggressor, which is why he’s been on the winning side of 13 of his 19 career decisions. You have to outwork a fighter like dos Anjos, which isn’t easy considering he has enough stamina to be effective each round. This will be dos Anjos’ third fight in Canada.
dos Anjos will have a clear advantage in this fight if he can force the takedown and wear down Lawer in the clinch. The even money is worth a shot if you think he avoid this being a standup fight. the problem is dos Anjos’ aggressiveness is likely going to work against him, leaving holes in his defense for Lawer to attack with his striking. Lawer is the bigger fighter with a four-inch reach advantage and has the clear power advantage that can end this thing at any moment. There’s also the great takedown defense that Lawer has. There’s a lot working against dos Anjos in my eyes.
I’m siding with Lawer to win this fight.