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Sage Northcutt vs. Thibault Gouti UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 2/18/18

Gouti vs. Northcutt

UFC: Sunday, February 18, 2018 (Frank Erwin Center)

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Sage Northcutt and Thibault Gouti fight Sunday during UFC Fight Night 126 at the Frank Erwin Center. 

Sage Northcutt enters this fight with a 9-2 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by knockout. Northcutt has split last four fights and is coming off a November win over Michel Quinones. Northcutt is averaging 3.5 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 53.7 percent. Northcutt is averaging 2.04 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 43.7 percent. Northcutt looked sharp in his return to lightweight, landing 82 strikes and producing three takedowns in a unanimous decision. Northcutt now hopes to win back-to-back fights for the first time since 2015. Northcutt is a very accurate and powerful striker, and his athleticism comes in handy when taking the fight to the canvas. At just 21 years old, Northcutt has a right future ahead of him if he can put together some consistency and win on the big stage Northcutt is quick, has good footwork, he just needs to do a better job at defending takedowns. This will be Northcutt’s sixth career fight in Texas, his birthplace. 

Sage Northcutt vs. Thibault Gouti UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 2/18/18

USA TODAY Sports

Thibault Gouti enters this fight with a 11-3 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by submission. Gouti has split his last six fights and is coming off a September win over Andrew Holbrook. Gouti is averaging 3.91 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Gouti is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Gouti is coming off his first UFC victory, as he’s now 1-3 under the banner and in need of a win like this to restart his career. Gouti is known for his striking and has one-punch knockout potential with four of his last five victories coming by knockout. Gouti is also a polished grappler who knows his way around the canvas and has six career submission victories. At almost 31 years old, Gouti has a balanced attack to hold his own on this level, but his resume is lacking, so some would question if he’s really ready for the big stage. This will be Gouti’s first career fight in the United States.

This is a tough fight to call, as both of these guys have had their issues on the big stage and have been finished too often. Gouti probably has the advantage if this fight goes to the canvas and it’s not hard to takedown Northcutt. However, Super has fought his best when at lightweight and has the quickness and power advantage. I also question Gouti’s ability against above-average fighters, as most of his resume is filled with no-name guys, and he’s lost pretty much all of his big fights. Northcutt is the younger, more athletic fighter and should be able to control where this fight goes. Not to mention he’ll be a heavy crowd favorite with this bout being in Texas.

I’m siding with the American to get the job done.

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