Frankie Edgar vs. Brian Ortega UFC 222 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 3/3/18
Ortega vs. Edgar
UFC: Saturday, March 3, 2018 (T-Mobile Arena)
The Line: Ortega +165 / Edgar -205 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega fight Saturday during UFC 222 at the T-Mobile Arena.
Frankie Edgar enters this fight with a 21-5-1 record and has won 52 percent of his fights by decision. Edgar has won seven his last eight fights and is coming off a May win over Yair Rodríguez. Edgar is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40.2 percent. Edgar is averaging 2.59 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35.4 percent. Edgar is coming off a second round knockout victory in which he dominated Rodriguez, landing 96 strikes and producing a takedown. Edgar now has just one loss since he fought Jose Aldo five years ago, and will fight for just the second time in about a year and a half. Edgar is an aggressive takedown artist with a polished grappling attack and is well conditioned enough to outlast most opponents. Edgar is tough as nails and has never been finished in his career, and he’s showing the knockout potential is there despite a lack of striking power, as three of his last six victories have come by knockout. Edgar has simply been a consistent fighter his whole career, and that hasn’t changed despite him turning 37 later this year. This will be Edgar’s 11th career fight in Las Vegas.
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Brian Ortega enters this fight with a 13-0 record and has won 54 percent of his fights by submission. This will be Ortega’s fifth fight since 2016, and he’s coming off a December win over Cub Swanson. Ortega is averaging 3.53 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 32.1 percent. Ortega is averaging 0.24 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 14.2 percent. Ortega has been nothing but impressive under the UFC banner, as he’s now 6-0 when you throw in his victory over Mike De La Torre, and he’s earned fight of the night honors in three of his last five victories. Ortega has improved his striking in his last few fights, but he can still be a bit wild and poorly accurate with his hands. Ortega is most dangerous with his legs and his ground game, as he kicks well and can find a submission hold just about anywhere. With a deep background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Ortega doesn’t need much of an opening to end a fight, as we saw in his last bout. Ortega is extremely dangerous on the canvas and has produced submission victories in three of his last four bouts. This will be Ortega’s second career fight in Las Vegas.
Edgar is probably the more balanced fighter between the two, as he’ll have the advantage standing up, and he has a wrestling background that will allow him to hang with Ortega on the canvas. Edgar is also well conditioned and has never been finished in his career, so there’s good reasons to consider him the favorite. However, this line is disrespect to Ortega, somebody who has never lost and is the better finisher. If you haven’t been impressed with Ortega’s run in the UFC, I’m not sure what you’re watching. The guy is long and a killer on the canvas and in grappling. If Ortega can get this fight against the fence or on the canvas, Edgar is going to be in trouble.
Give me the upset, as I have Ortega remaining undefeated.