Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas UFC 223 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 4/7/18
Namajunas vs. Jedrzejczyk
UFC: Saturday, April 7, 2018 (Barclays Center)
The Line: Namajunas +130 / Jedrzejczyk -150 -- Over/Under: 3.5 See the Latest Odds
Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Rose Namajunas fight Saturday during UFC 223 at the Barclays Center.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk enters this fight with a 14-1 record and has won 64 percent of her fights by decision. Jedrzejczyk has won five of her last six fights and is coming off a November loss to Namajunas. Jedrzejczyk is averaging 6.76 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49.8 percent. Jedrzejczyk is averaging 0.19 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66.6 percent. Jedrzejczyk hopes to get her belt back after successfully defending it five straight bouts before being knocked out in her first career loss. Jedrzejczyk only landed five strikes in the first round loss and looked overmatched from the beginning. When she’s able to control the fight and dictate the pace, Jedrzejczyk proves she’s an extremely decorated kick boxer who uses her knees and legs better than most, and is an overall highly efficient striker with superb accuracy and a background in boxing. Jedrzejczyk has great technique, knows how to finish her opponent despite most of her fights ending in decision, and she usually always has the advantage when fighting standing up. However, Jedrzejczyk’s last fight may raise some questions as to just how dominating her attack truly is, as she didn’t look good at all. This will be Jedrzejczyk’s third career fight in New York.
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Rose Namajunas enters this fight with a 8-3 record and has won 75 percent of her fights by submission. Namajunas has won five of her last six fights and is coming off a November win over Jedrzejczyk. Namajunas is averaging 3.56 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45.1 percent. Namajunas is averaging 2.9 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 60 percent. Namajunas is coming off the biggest win of her career, winning the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship by producing a first round knockout. Namajunas landed a nasty left hand that dropped her opponent and then finished the job with a few heavy blows on the canvas. Namajunas is an aggressive pressure fighter who likes to stay busy by working the jab and mixing in some kicks. Namajunas now has just one knockout victory under her belt, but she’s proven to be somebody who can hold her own standing up and can land powerful strikes. However, it’s Namajunas’ ground game that’s the most scary, as five of her victories have come by submission and she wastes little time locking in that rear-naked choke. Namajunas is deadly if she can gain position on the canvas, as her long legs and upper body strength are hard to counter. This will be Namajunas’ second career fight in New York.
This is another betting line that’s throwing me for a loop. Jedrzejczyk has just lost one fight and has more than proven herself on big cards, so she’s worthy of the benefit of the doubt. You get hit with a haymaker, you lose, it happens to everybody. However, Namajunas controlled the entire pace of the first bout, dropped her multiple times, had the quicker hands and it was clear her power was overwhelming. If Jedrzejczyk can’t eat those power shots better, there’s little to believe the result is going to be different here. And it’s not like she can take things to the canvas, because Namajunas has the clear edge there as well. The fact Thug is an underdog in this spot is crazy to me based on the way the three minutes went when these two met a few months ago.
I like Namajunas to successfully defend her belt.