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Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 4/14/18

Brown vs. Condit

UFC: Saturday, April 14, 2018 (Gila River Arena)

The Line: Condit -110 / Brown -110 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX

Carlos Condit and Matt Brown fight Saturday during UFC on Fox 29 at the Gila River Arena.

Carlos Condit enters this fight with a 30-11 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Condit has lost six of his last eight fights and is coming off a December loss to Neil Magny. Condit is averaging 3.7 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 39.1 percent. Condit is averaging 0.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 52.9 percent. Condit isn’t getting any younger, as he’ll soon turn 34 years old after this fight, and he’s desperate for a victory to kind of right the ship. Condit’s last win came in 2015 against Thiago Alves, and he has just three victories in the last six years overall. When in good form, which is clearly rare these days, Condit is deadly, with 28 of his 30 wins coming by finish, as he has one-punch knockout potential and has 13 submission victories as well. Condit has a kickboxing background, is really athletic and has the stamina to still be effective in the later rounds despite losing each of his last four decisions. Giving up on Condit at this point probably isn’t a good idea, but there’s no doubt he’s running out of time to remain relevant or at least a reliable betting option. This will be Condit’s first career fight in Arizona.

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Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 4/14/18

USA TODAY Sports

Matt Brown enters this fight with a 23-16 record and has won 61 percent of his fights by knockout. Brown has lost five of his last seven fights and is coming off a November win over Diego Sanchez. Brown is averaging 3.78 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 53.9 percent. Brown is averaging 1.57 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Brown was able to snap a three-fight losing streak with a first round knockout that earned him performance of the night. Brown now looks to win back-to-back fights for the first time since 2013-14, as he’s also been in a rough patch over the years. When in good form, Brown is obviously a violent and accurate striker who has won six of his last seven fights by knockout. Brown has also improved his takedown defense and hasn’t been taken down at all since his 2013 fight with Demian Maia. Either way, Brown is an exciting fighter who has seen each of his last fight end in a finish, good or bad. This will be Brown’s first career fight in Arizona.

I’m not sure how anybody can pick Condit to win a fight until he breaks out of this funk. Yes, it only takes one result to change the whole feel of a fighter and Condit certainly has the finish ability to beat anybody and get right back in the swing of things, but I have a hard time putting money on guys who lose nearly every time they take the octagon. Brown is coming off an impressive knockout victory and is the more accurate striker who can trade blows with NBK, and I trust him more in the clinch and on the canvas. Brown should have little trouble executing takedowns, wearing down the powerful Condit and increasing his chances of winning late.  

Give me Brown to win this toss-up fight.

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