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Neil Magny vs. Gunnar Nelson UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 5/27/18

Nelson vs. Magny

UFC: Sunday, May 27, 2018 (Echo Arena)

The Line: Magny +187 / Nelson -225 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Neil Magny and Gunnar Nelson fight Sunday during UFC Fight Night 130 at the Echo Arena.

Neil Magny enters this fight with a 20-7 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by decision. Magny has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a December win over Carlos Condit. Magny is averaging 3.84 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48.4 percent. Magny is averaging 2.89 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 48.8 percent. Magny is coming off an impressive victory in which he landed 64 total strikes and produced six takedowns. It was the classic Magny performance, scrappy, athletic and doing whatever it takes to give himself a shot at a win. Magny now looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2015-16. Magny is a lengthy fighter with a reach of 80 inches and uses that both in striking and to produce 41 takedowns on the UFC level. Magny is an overall smart defensive fighter who has won 11 of his 12 career decisions and is a really polished wrestler / grappler. Magny has been submitted four times, but his length and athleticism always makes him a tough fight for anybody within this division. This will be Magny’s first career fight in England. 

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Neil Magny vs. Gunnar Nelson UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 5/27/18

Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Gunnar Nelson enters this fight with a 16-3-1 record and has won 69 percent of his fights by submission. Nelson has split his last six fights and is coming off a July loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio. Nelson is averaging 2.01 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 56.8 percent. Nelson is averaging 1.64 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 62.5 percent. Nelson is coming off a first round knockout, but he was poked in the eye earlier in the fight, which effected the outcome to some degree, some I’m not sure how much stock you put into it. Either way, all three of Nelson’s career losses have come in his last six fights, so he’s hit or miss betting wise as of late. When in good form, Nelson is a successful takedown artist who always feels he has the edge on the canvas. Nelson has 10 takedowns on the UFC level and each of his last five victories have come by submission. Nelson isn’t much of a threat standing up, but when he shoots for those takedowns and gets the fight where he wants it, he’s a nightmare to deal with. This will be Nelson’s ninth career fight in England.

While Magny is the more aggressive striker and has a vicious ground and pound, these are two guys who rely on grappling and wrestling more than anything, so it’s really a question of who will gain position and control the fight. Nelson is obviously the more polished fighter on the canvas and is a submission machine, but Magny is scrappy and extremely athletic, which makes this closer to a toss-up. Magny may not be the prettiest fighter in the world, but he often squiggles out of trouble and doesn’t give up easily. While I strongly considered the plus money, I’m going to back Nelson due to Magny being vulnerable with the submissions. Nelson isn’t the guy you want to fight when you have a habit of being caught out of position and tapping.

Give me Nelson for the bounce back victory.

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