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Anthony Pettis vs. Michael Chiesa UFC 226 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 7/7/18

Michael Chiesa vs. Anthony Pettis

UFC: Saturday, July 7, 2018 (T-Mobile Arena)

The Line: Pettis +135 / Chiesa -155 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: PPV

Michael Chiesa and Anthony Pettis fight Saturday during UFC 226 at the T-Mobile Arena.

Michael Chiesa enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by submission. Chiesa has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a June loss to Kevin Lee. Chiesa is averaging 2.18 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37.4 percent. Chiesa is averaging 2.71 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40.5 percent. Chiesa was embarrassed in his last fight, as he landed just nine strikes, was taken down early and eventually submitted in the first round. Chiesa has been finished in all three of his losses and was simply dominated in his last bout, especially for having a reputation of being a good scrambler and having a quality ground game. Chiesa has still produced submission wins in nine of his last 11 victories and is still a quality wrestler and takedown artist who is at his best when getting his opponent off his feet. Chiesa has never lost back-to-back fights in his career, so it will be interesting to see how he responds this time. This will be Chiesa’s fourth career pro MMA fight in Las Vegas. 

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Anthony Pettis vs. Michael Chiesa UFC 226 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 7/7/18

Sean Pokorny-USA TODAY Sports

Anthony Pettis enters this fight with a 20-7 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Pettis has lost five of his last seven fights and is coming off a November loss to Dustin Poirier. Pettis is averaging 2.81 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45.3 percent. Pettis is averaging 0.82 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54.5 percent. Pettis continues to be on the losing end these days, but he held his own his last fight in which he landed 46 strikes and survived many takedowns. Pettis was eventually knocked out in the third round, but the bout earned fight of the night honors and showed that Showtime still has heart and won’t go down easily. Pettis is an athletic fighter who can attack from a variety of angels and flip things quickly if a fight goes to the canvas. You’re never safe when fighting a guy like Pettis, as he’s creative with his strikes and has produced finishes in 16 of his 20 career victories. Pettis has just two wins since successfully defending his title against Gilbert Melendez four years ago, but his recent fight does provide a glimmer of hope moving forward. Pettis isn’t washed yet despite entering this bout at 31 years old and not getting the results he wants. This will be Pettis’ sixth career fight in Las Vegas.

Pettis is always worth a look as an underdog given his history and the fact he usually hangs in there tough even if things aren’t going his way. Pettis had his chances in his last fight to still win despite being on the losing side for much of three rounds. I don’t like how Chiesa looked in his last bout, he’s the much bigger fighter here and will have a considerable advantage on the canvas. Pettis is going to have trouble getting out of those takedown attempts, and I’m not sure he has the stamina to last such an exhausting style of fight that Chiesa brings to the octagon. Also, Maverick usually has a sense of urgency and has a track record of bouncing back nicely from a loss. We can’t say the same for Pettis. 

Give me Chiesa in this fight.

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