Jessica Andrade vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz UFC 228 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 9/8/18
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Andrade
UFC: Saturday, September 8, 2018 (American Airlines Center)
The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
Jessica Andrade and Karolina Kowalkiewicz fight Saturday during UFC 228 at the American Airlines Center.
Jessica Andrade enters this fight with a 18-6 record and has won 39 percent of her fights by submission. Andrade has won five of her last six fights and is coming off a February win over Tecia Torres. Andrade is averaging 6.42 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51.8 percent. Andrade is averaging 3.24 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 58.9 percent. Andrade dominated her victory earlier this year in which she landed 151 total strikes and produced 10 takedowns. Andrade has looked really sharp in her last two fights since losing the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship, opening the door to possibly another title shot. Andrade is an athletic fighter who has always been sharp with her standup striking, as she’s a very polished boxer with knockout potential, but she’s also produced 33 takedowns on the UFC level and has seven career submission victories. At almost 27 years old, Andrade is always the aggressor in the octagon and has produced 14 takedowns in her last two fights, so it’s clear what her goal is these days. A feisty Brazilian, Andrade has shown she can do a little bit of everything and has the stamina to go four straight decisions against quality fighters. This will be Andrade’s fourth career fight in Texas.
Susumu Nagao-USA TODAY Sports
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters this fight with a 12-2 record and has won 75 percent of her fights by decision. Kowalkiewicz has won six of her last eight fights and is coming off a April win over Felice Herrig. Kowalkiewicz is averaging 5.64 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38.4 percent. Kowalkiewicz is averaging 0.15 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 14.2 percent. Kowalkiewicz is coming off a solid split decision victory in which she landed 140 strikes and was the aggressor for majority of the fight. Kowalkiewicz has bounced back nicely from back-to-back losses and has a shot at what would be the biggest victory of her career. Kowalkiewicz is a smart fighter who doesn't like to force the issue much and will take what her opponent gives her, which is why 10 of her 14 fights have ended in decision. Kowalkiewicz has proven to be a solid defensive fighter with a strong takedown defense and has been finished just once in her two losses. However, in order to win a fight like this, Kowalkiewicz has to be more aggressive in her attack. This will be Kowalkiewicz’s first career fight in Texas.
Kowalkiewicz does have a small size advantage in this fight with a two inch reach advantage, so there’s reasons to give her a shot. The issue I have is Kowalkiewicz hasn’t been nearly aggressive enough in her fights and relies way too much on defensive ability and IQ. That’s well and good, but a fighter such as Andrade is going to have the edge due to her bringing the fight to her opponent. Whether it’s constant takedown attempts or striking ability, Andrade is going for the kill whenever she’s in the octagon, and I don’t want the opponent playing defense all the time.
Andrade bullies her way to victory.