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Luis Henrique vs. Ryan Spann UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 9/22/18

Ryan Spann vs. Luis Henrique

UFC: Saturday, September 22, 2018 (Ginasio do Ibirapuera)

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FS2

Luis Henrique and Ryan Spann fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 137 at the Ginasio do Ibirapuera.

Luis Henrique enters this fight with a 10-4 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by submission. Henrique has split his last six fights and is coming off a September (2017) loss to Arjan Bhullar. Henrique is averaging 1.76 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41.8 percent. Henrique is averaging 2.85 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36.6 percent. Henrique is coming off a fight in which he ate 60 strikes and was taken down once, as he’s now lost back-to-back fights for the first time in his career and hasn’t won a fight in almost two years. It’s also going to be interesting to see how Henrique handles the time out of the octagon, as he hasn’t gone a year without a fight since his WOCS days. Henrique is a solid grappler with a proven ground game that’s produced four submission victories and he’s successful with his takedown attempts. Other than that, Henrique hasn’t been overly impressive, and he has shown a suspect chin, as three of his four career losses have been knockouts. Henrique has fought most of his career his Brazil, his birthplace. 

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Luis Henrique vs. Ryan Spann UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 9/22/18

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Spann enters this fight with a 14-5 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by submission. Spann has won each of his last four fights and is coming off a June win over Emiliano Sordi. Spann is averaging 7.32 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 55.5 percent. Spann is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Spann has already had a highly successful year in which he knocked out Alex Nicholson and submitted Sordi, as he now looks for three wins in a single year in back-to-back efforts. Spann is an exciting fighter who has produced finishes in 13 of his 14 victories and has a highly effective ground game where he enjoys using the guillotine choke more than anything else. Spann is an athletic fighter who has some pop behind his strikes as well. Each of Spann’s last eight victories have ended in the first round and he’s 2-3 for his career when a fight goes past the first round. This will be Spann’s first career fight outside of the United States.

It’s hard to trust Henrique given the time he’s been out of the ring and the fact he wasn’t great the last couple of times we saw him. Spann has an athleticism advantage, would probably have the edge on the canvas and has a seven inch reach advantage on top of it. Spann should be able to get whatever he wants in this fight and could probably end things whenever he feels like it. I’m just not high on Henrique and what he’s shown us up to this point.

Give me the American for the victory.

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