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Sam Alvey vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 9/22/18

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Sam Alvey

UFC: Saturday, September 22, 2018 (Ginasio do Ibirapuera)

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Sam Alvey and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 137 at the Ginasio do Ibirapuera.

Sam Alvey enters this fight with a 33-10 record and has won 58 percent of his fights by knockout. Alvey has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a June win over Gian Villante. Alvey is averaging 3.1 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45.8 percent. Alvey is averaging 0.1 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 25 percent. Alvey is coming off a decision victory in which he landed 59 strikes, and he’s now looking for his third victory of the year. Alvey is a well conditioned fighter who has seen 19 of his fights end in decision, and he has a strong wrestling background despite scoring just one takedown on the UFC level. Alvey has a strong takedown defense and doesn’t really take a beating, as he’s only been finished twice in 10 career losses. Alvey is also a polished striker who has pop in both hands and has produced a knockout in five of his last 10 victories. Winning three fights in eight months would do wonders for the 32-year-old American and should lead to bigger and better cards for Alvey. This will be Alvey’s second career fight in Brazil. 

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Sam Alvey vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 9/22/18

Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira enters this fight with a 22-7 record and has won 41 percent of his fights by decision. Nogueira has lost five of his last eight fights and is coming off a November (2016) loss to Ryan Bader. Nogueira is averaging 2.35 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 34.4 percent. Nogueira is averaging 0.69 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44.8 percent. The last time we saw Nogueira in the octagon, he was eating 129 strikes while trading just 12, and he was knocked out in the third round. It’s going to be interesting to see how Nogueira rebounds after not fighting for almost two years and now being 42 years old. It’s fair to question just how much Nogueira has left in the tank at this point and if he’s capable of hanging with fighters who are decades younger. Nogueira has won just one fight in the last four years, and being out of the sport for so long doesn’t help matters. Still, Nogueira is a decorated boxer with a proven ground game, so he can’t be completely written off despite the poor form. This will be Nogueira’s first career fight in Brazil, his birthplace. 

We have a fighter in Alvey who is probably in his best form of his career, knocking guys out left and right and has been consistently in the octagon. On the other side, Nogueira hasn’t fought in nearly two years, didn’t look good the last time we saw him and is 10 years older than his opponent. Nogueira has an advantage if he could produce a takedown and take away that striking ability from Alvey, but conditioning will be an issue and I doubt he’ll be able to crack the American’s defense. There’s just no way you can back Nogueira with so many unknowns and him not fighting for so long.

I’ll back Alvey to get his third win of the year.

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