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Ovince Saint Preux vs. Dominick Reyes UFC 229 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/6/18

Dominick Reyes vs. Ovince Saint Preux

UFC: Saturday, October 6, 2018 (T-Mobile Arena)

The Line: Reyes -219 / OSP +191 -- Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: PPV

Ovince Saint Preux and Dominick Reyes fight Saturday during UFC 229 at the T-Mobile Arena.

Ovince Saint Preux enters this fight with a 22-11 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Saint Preux has won four of his last five fights and is coming off a June win over Tyson Pedro. Saint Preux is averaging 2.69 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46.6 percent. Saint Preux is averaging 1.19 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 47.3 percent. Saint Preux is coming off a first round submission and has now earned performance of the night honors in each of his last three victories. Saint Preux landed 13 strikes and produced his seventh submission win in his career. Saint Preux has now proceed finishes in each of his last four wins and is in much more consistent form than he was a few years ago. Saint Preux is a strong, big athlete with an 80 inch reach and is well conditioned for a light heavyweight. Saint Preux is a powerful striker who is most effective standing up, but he’s shown recently his wrestling ability and is more than comfortable on the canvas. This will be Saint Preux’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

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Ovince Saint Preux vs. Dominick Reyes UFC 229 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/6/18

Susumu Nagao-USA TODAY Sports

Dominick Reyes enters this fight with a 9-0 record and has won 67 percent of his fights by knockout. This will be Reyes’ sixth fight since 2017, and he’s coming off a May win over Jared Cannonier. Reyes is averaging 6.95 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Reyes is averaging 2.13 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Reyes is now 3-0 under the UFC banner and is coming off a first round knockout in which he landed 21 strikes. Reyes has finished all but one of his opponents and that one decision victory was the only time a fight made it out of the first round. Reyes is a smart, athletic fighter with great speed and is aggressive from the start. Reyes is polished with his takedowns, but it’s his striking accuracy and power in his hands that make him most dangerous. Reyes has won five of his last six fights by knockout, and he’s highly effective with his legs as well. The one question for Reyes is obviously his conditioning, as he’s highly energetic and hasn’t had to prove much he can survive deep waters and a battle in the later rounds. This will be Reyes’ second career fight in Las Vegas.

It’s somewhat surprising Reyes is the favorite in this fight. Yes, he’s athletic, exciting and has never lost, but he’s also somewhat experienced against quality fighters and hasn’t proven himself in long fights. Saint Preux is the bigger, more experienced fighter who is sure to force Reyes in a battle of endurance and possibly steal this in the later rounds. We also can’t ignore that Saint Preux has turned things around rather quickly and has gone back to his wrestling roots. OSP is no longer the struggling fighter who you question if he still has what it takes to be one of the best in this sport. I get the hype with Reyes, but the veteran is being overlooked here.

I’ll take Saint Preux in the upset based on the price.

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